An overwhelming global scientific consensus says that man-made global warming is happening NOW. Indeed for the latest see the report from President Obama’s science advisers that states that massive climatic disruption is already affecting the United States and that projects that the average U.S. temperature could rise by as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century (see “White House: climate change damage happening now. Obama’s first global warming report most dire yet: Ill effects already here, will get worse”). Thus White House report report co-author Anthony Janetos of the University of Maryland:

“There are in some cases already serious consequences. This is not a theoretical thing that will happen 50 years from now. Things are happening now.”

Nevertheless the climate sceptics are unfazed and essentially all governments around the world are committed to continuing to increase atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration above the present level of circa 390 parts per million (ppm) to even more dangerous levels.

In contrast, in climate criminal Australia (one of the world’s worst annual per capita greenhouse gas polluters) climate activists and leading climate scientists are calling for urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to 300 ppm. The Australia-based Climate Emergency Network, the Canberra Climate Action Summit (over 140 Australia-wide climate action groups), the influential Yarra Valley Climate Action Group and 300.org all say – informed by the latest science from America’s Dr James Hansen (NASA GISS), Australia’s Professor Barry Brook (climate science, University of Adelaide) and others – that for a safe and sustainable existence for all people and all species the atmospheric CO2 of our warming-threatened planet must be urgently reduced from the current circa 390 ppm to 300 ppm (click here for details and documentation).

What can a man believe? Well, just as we turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and climate scientists for climate change risk assessment and climate emergency facts and requisite actions. Further, we haven’t the time or money to attend university courses on climate science – but we can access publicly available lectures given by top climate scientists and analysts.

A number of readily accessed, readily scanned, easily comprehended and brilliantly illustrated climate change power point lectures are available which point to the urgent need to reduce atmospheric CO2 from the current ~390 ppm to ~300 ppm.

Thus that by NASA’s Dr Hansen entitled “Global warming 20 years later: tipping points near” (2008) (address to National Press Club, and House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global warming, Washington DC [44 pages]) spells out that 300-325 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentration is needed for restoration of sea ice, QUOTES: “Target CO2: <350 ppm To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed" and "Arctic Sea Ice Criterion. 1. Restore Planetary Energy Balance -> CO2: 385 ppm -> 325-355 ppm. 2. Restore Sea Ice: Aim for – 0.5 W/m2, CO2: 385 -> 300-325 ppm. Range based on uncertainty in present planetary energy imbalance (between 0.5 and 1 W/m2)”.

Some of these excellent power point lectures on climate change are accessible via the links provided below. The credentials of these top scientists and analysts are given in parentheses.

1. Professor Barry Brook (Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia), “Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies” (2008), an outline of paleoclimate history, climatic disruption and mitigation and adaptation strategies [40 pages].

2. Dr Andrew Glikson (Earth and paleoclimate scientist, School of Archaeology and Anthropology & Research School of Earth Science, Australian National University (ANU), Canberra, Australia), “Human evolution and the atmosphere: return of the Pliocene?” (2008), illustrating the global temperature, methane and CO2 levels in the generally cooling period since the Pliocene (3 Mya, million years ago) during which time the genus Homo evolved to yield Homo sapiens (us) about 100,000 years ago. However, massive man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution in the industrial era (post-1750) has pushed atmospheric CO2 concentration outside the range of 180-300 ppm obtaining during the final evolution of Homo sapiens from his immediate precursors over the last 600,000 years [46 pages].

3. Dr James Hansen (top US climate scientist; Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Adjunct Professor, Columbia University, New York; member of the prestigious US National Academy of Sciences; 2007 Award for Scientific Freedom and Responsibility of the prestigious American Association for the Advancement of Science), “Global warming 20 years later: tipping points near” (2008) – address to National Press Club, and House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global warming, Washington DC [44 pages].

4. Dr James Hansen (top US climate scientist; Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Adjunct Professor, Columbia University, New York), “Climate threat to the planet. Implications for energy policy and intergenerational justice”, Bjerknes Lecture, American Biophysical Union, San Francisco, California, 17 December, 2008 [39 pages]. [For a series of other incisive writings by Dr James Hansen see: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/, most notably Dr James Hansen, “Carbon Tax and 100% Dividend vs. Tax and Trade”, Committee on Ways & Means, US House of Representatives, February 2009].

5. Professor John Holdren (Professor of Environmental Policy and Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University; Director, Woods Hole Research Center; former president, American Association for the Advancement of Science, AAAS; President Barack Obama’s chief science adviser), “The Science of Climate Disruption” (2008) – a summary of the basis of man-made global warming and the climatic disruption that has already occurred [32 pages].

6. Dr Graeme Pearman (former Climate director, Australian CSIRO, Australia’s premier scientific research organization; GP Consulting; interim director, MSI; Monash University Sustainability Group), “Climate change: the evidence, science and current projections” (2008) [37 pages].

7. Dr Peter Seligman (Bionic Ear engineer, Cochlear Pty Ltd and Monash University, Melbourne, Australia), “Bang for Buck in CO2 abatement” (2008) discusses where you can invest your money most effectively to reduce your Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions; some of our favourite solutions do not bear up under his analysis [43 pages].

8. David Spratt and Phillip Sutton, Climate Emergency Network, “A Safe Climate Future”, (2008), based on the book “Climate Code Red. The case for emergency action” by David Spratt and Phillip Sutton (Scribe, Melbourne, 2008), a powerful summary of the latest climate science results by 2 leading non-scientist climate activists heavily informed by top climate scientists such as NASA’s Dr James Hansen who indeed endorsed “Climate Code Red” as “a compelling case … we face a climate emergency” [95 pages].

The brilliant power point lectures I have listed above are not only educative for climate activists – they should be very useful for educating the public as a whole. Please tell everyone you can and encourage them to judge for themselves.

All of the above are referred to by me (biochemist, teacher, La Trobe University, Melbourne and U3A, Melbourne) in my “Global Warming, Climate Emergency Course” (2009) detailed course notes for an 8 x 2 hour course for the Yarra Valley University of the Third Age (U3A) on global warming, the present climatic disruption and what we can do about it [if you are in Melbourne , Australia: Semester 2, St. Andrew’s Hall, Rosanna, Melbourne, Australia; 1.30-3.30 pm, each Tuesday, 7 July 2009 onwards; one semester course attendance cost A$15 for non-U3A members, A$7.50 for members of another U3A branch]. You can attend this up-to-date climate change course for FREE from the other side of the planet by simply accessing the 52 pages of carefully documented notes via this link.

Informed by the latest science, Australia-based, but hopefully International, 300 was formed to educate the public about the urgent need to reduce atmospheric CO2 from the present damaging level of about 390 ppm to a safe and sustainable level of 300 ppm.

300.org enthusiastically endorses the 350.org 24 October 2009 International Day of Climate Action but recommends the number from the latest climate science of “300” (see “Re 300.org & 350”.org) .

Here are comments from some major climate activists and climate action groups who have summed up the latest scientific evidence and conclude that there is an urgent need to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration to 300 ppm.

David Spratt (co-author with Phillip Sutton of “Climate Code Red. The case for emergency action” (2009):

“In short, if you don’t have a target that aims to cool the planet sufficiently to get the sea-ice back, the climate system may spiral out of control, past many “tipping points” to the final “point of no return … And that target is not 350ppm, it’s around 300 ppm. [NASA’s] Hansen says Arctic sea-ice passed its tipping point decades ago, and in his presentations has also specifically identified 300-325ppm as the target range for sea-ice restoration … Target 300 puts the science first. Interestingly in Australia, where I am based, 350 has not gained wide appeal, with most of the grass-roots climate action groups adopting a 300 ppm target, consistent with the propositions elaborated in “Climate Code Red”” (see “350 is the wrong target. Put the science first”).

Climate Positive (2009):

“Why humanity must aim for 300 ppm to restore a safe climate – this report is a summary of the latest climate science and solutions and argues convincingly that humanity must reduce atmospheric carbon [CO2] levels to 300 ppm or below to restore a safe climate … As a society we are preparing for a medium-sized climate problem, despite evidence that points to the problem being greater than we had anticipated. Instead of relying of an illusion of certainty, we need to manage the risks of climate change responsibly. This means reducing atmospheric concentrations to within the range that we know the climate will maintain stability – 300 ppmv CO2 equivalent. This would rule out a domino effect of sea-ice loss, albedo flip, a warmer Arctic, a disintegrating Greenland ice sheet, more melting permafrost, and knock-on effects of massively increased greenhouse gas emissions, rising atmospheric concentrations and accelerated global warming.Any proposal for a target higher than 300ppmv would imply confidence that it is safe to leave the Arctic sea ice melted. If we currently have such confidence, it is misplaced. 300ppmv is below current atmospheric concentrations, but we can achieve it if we act now, because of the delay in how the climate system responds – if we can lower the atmospheric concentrations this century the system may never reach the full level of warming we are due to receive” (see: “Climate Safety report – 300 ppm”).

Westernport Green Allianc (Victoria, Australia, 2009):

“In short, if you don’t have a target that aims to cool the planet sufficiently to get the sea-ice back, the climate system may spiral out of control, past many “tipping points” to the final “point of no return”. And that target is not 350ppm, it’s around 300 ppm. Hansen says Arctic sea-ice passed its tipping point decades ago” (see: “350 is the wrong target: put the science first”).

Jenny Curtis, mother and member of Climate Change Balmain Rozelle (Sydney, Australia):

“Australia must be part of a global climate change action plan that will reduce carbon concentration in the atmosphere to 300 parts per million (ppm) and keep it there” (see Greenlivingpedia, “Australian climate Action Summit 2009”).

Australia’s 2009 Climate Action Summit (a meeting of over 140 Australian Climate Action Groups, Canberra, January 2009) concluded:

“The united Community Climate Action Groups will campaign for outcomes on these objectives: (1) Prevent the CPRS [the higly flawed Rudd Labor Government Emissions Trading Scheme or ETS] from becoming law as it will fail to make emission cuts necessary to stop the climate emergency; (2) Build community-wide action to demand green jobs, a just transition for industry workers and 100% renewable energy by 2020; (3) Aim for stabilisation at 300ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and strong international agreement in line with what science and global justice demands” (see Greenlivingpedia, “Australian climate Action Summit 2009”).

The initially Victoria-based Australian Climate Emergency Network endorses the position of the 2009 Australia’s 2009 Climate Action Summit (a meeting of over 140 Australian Climate Action Groups, Canberra, January 2009):

“To build community support for a goal of stabilisation at 300ppm CO2 and strong international agreement in line with what science and global justice demands. To communicate this position to Copenhagen Conference of Parties, and advocate for the Australian government to adopt that position” (see Climate Emergency Network, 2009).

The Melbourne-based Yarra Valley Climate Action Group (one of the larger climate action groups in Australia, stretching gfrom Taggerty in the northern mountain s to the suburban heartland of Melbourne) (2009):

“Climate Emergency Actions URGENTLY Required. 1. Change of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance for lying. 2. Urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as recommended by leading climate and biological scientists. 3. Rapid switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport, needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessation of fossil fuel burning, deforestation, methanogenic livestock production and population growth” (see “Climate emergency facts and required action”, 2009).

Target 300 (Australia):

“300 ppm CO2 adopted by Victorian and then National grass roots groups … why Hansen’s recent work shows our climate target must be 300 ppm CO2 or below … 300 ppm CO2 or below. A goal to reestablish a stable climate” (see: Target 300, 2009).

Please join with these well-informed Climate Activists and Climate Action Groups in demanding an urgent return of atmospheric CO2 concentration from circa 390 ppm to a safe and sustainable 300 ppm for a safe planet for all peoples and all species.

Now a second, extensively edited and revised version of this book has been published in Melbourne: “Climate Code Red- the case for emergency action” by David Spratt and Phillip Sutton (Scribe, Melbourne, 2008). This revised version is very readable and accordingly ideal for getting this extremely serious message across to the general public.

I must confess that as a scientist I preferred the first version for scientific cultural reasons because of the detailed scientific literature documentation provided and in particular for a 2 page colour insert that summarized the core data in a series of Figures. Indeed, when I reviewed the first version it was very convenient to base the bulk of my review on this 2 page data review. However as a lover of poetry, plays and novels as well as of dispassionately presented scientific rigour, I readily concede the Two Cultures argument to the extremely well written second version of Climate Code Red. Further, a selection of key references are provided for each chapter and a key photograph, a key Figure and a key Table are provided to complement the argument.

The hard, scientific case for emergency action presented in “Climate Code Red” is best summarized in the following quotation from a scientific article by top US climate scientist Dr James Hansen (Head, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies) and his American, British and French colleagues:

“Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2 [carbon dioxide; atmospheric CO2 280 ppm pre-industrial], including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm [parts per million], a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects”.

In the last analysis, while cognizant of the need for sensible open-mindedness, rational risk management means we must take very seriously the advice of top scientific experts at the cutting edge of climate change research – just as we would take very seriously the advice of top specialist medical experts in relation to a life threatening medical condition. Top US and World expert on climate change, Dr Hansen, commented thus on “Climate Code Red”: “A compelling case … we face a climate emergency”.

Eminent medical scientist and Governor of the State of Victoria, Australia, Professor David de Kretser launched “Climate Code Red –the case for emergency action” in the Victorian State Parliament House in Melbourne recently and used the following unambiguous words:

“The book draws on a vast array of information to build a cogent and compelling case that we do have a genuine emergency on our hands if we are to limit the rise of greenhouse gas emissions to a level at which we can limit the degradation of our planet to manageable levels … There is no doubt in my mind that this is the greatest problem confronting mankind at this time and that it has reached the level of a state of emergency”.

Outstanding Australian scientist and Nobel Laureate Professor Peter Doherty has recently published a related book entitled “A Light History of Hot Air” (Melbourne University Publishing, 2007) in which he states : “We are consuming the future and it’s up to us to develop and use renewable resources”. In an interview about this Professor Doherty summarized the dilemma thus: “Everything is about hot air. Political and in the atmosphere. We are in real danger. The recent CSIRO report suggests that temperatures could rise as much as five degrees by 2070. The ice is melting much more quickly than anyone expected. The Himalayas are melting very fast. We are now talking about the Arctic being ice-free by 2030”.

David Spratt (climate policy analyst and founder of Carbon Equity) and Phillip Sutton (convenor of the environmental strategy-based Greenleap Strategic Institute) are economic analysts and not scientists, but were driven, in part, to write “Climate Code Red” by the apparent silence (with notable exceptions ) of the scientific community. This problem of academic and institutional timidity has been perceived by no less than outstanding UK and World climate change scientist Dr James Lovelock FRS (2008): “I hate academia. Most of the scientists who work there are not free men any more and they can’t speak out. That’s no way to do science”.

“Climate Code Red” is divided into 3 parts, specifically Part One, “The Big Melt” (the threat to the biosphere due to global warming and the ice melting in the polar regions), Part Two “Targets”( where we are headed in terms of temperature increase of over 2 degrees Centigrade, massive sea level rise and huge loss of ecosystems and human sustainability – and where we have to aim for to avoid catastrophe), and Part Three “The Climate Emergency” (how to achieve a safe climate economy and deal effectively with the Climate Emergency).

Part One “The Big Melt”deals with the accelerating loss of Arctic sea ice (if you want to be shocked see the latest images and data on the official US National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC), the thawing of Greenland, the Himalayan glaciers, the tundra and the Antarctic and the threat from rising sea levels. Chapter 6 deals with the current mass species extinction phenomena and the threat to ecosystems across the world. Chapter 7 “The Price of Reticence” deals with the institutional scientific conservatism (and cowardice) that has been dishonestly exploited by “dirty energy” big business and the climate sceptics.

Part Two, “Targets”, begins with the sentence “Something is wrong and we must make it right”. Successive chapters explore what is a safe climate zone (less than a 2 degree C rise above pre-industrial; we are already 0.8 degrees C and on track for a 3-6 degrees C increase above the 1750 value as indicated in the quote from Dr Hansen given above). How we can get to a safe zone will require mechanisms for a draw-down on atmospheric CO2 to less than 350 ppm (renewable energy use, cessation of carbon burning, re-afforestation, return of carbon as biochar to soils).

Part Three, “The Climate Emergency”, gets into the economic systems management area of professional expertise of the authors. Successive chapters deal with how we must deal with the Climate Emergency. Chapter 26 “In the End” draws upon the experience of World War 2 and the dramatic increase in military outlays as a percentage of national income in the US, UK, Germany and Japan i.e. we have already an extraordinary precedent for extraordinary, short term societal effort.

The 2008 current market collapse has already provided an example of the rapid global action currently being taken at enormous expense to protect the vested interests of the very people (Top Capitalists) primarily responsible for the Climate Emergency. Earlier this year Nobel Laureate Al Gore urged dramatic requisite action to save the planet : “Today I challenge our nation to commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy and truly clean carbon-free sources within 10 years … So I ask you to join with me to call on every candidate, at every level, to accept this challenge – for America to be running on 100 percent zero-carbon electricity in 10 years. It’s time for us to move beyond empty rhetoric. We need to act now”.

Dramatic changes in technology mean that Al Gore’s vision is achievable NOW – the energy cost cross-over point has finally been reached and the best renewable and geothermal power options now cost essentially the same as the (heavily subsidized) “market cost” of coal power (see “One Day Pathétique” Symphony Painting. HOPE – Best Renewables Now Cost Same as Coal Power”).

“Climate Code Red” is a powerful statement of the case for emergency action to deal with the Climate Emergency and Sustainability Emergency. Most importantly, “Climate Code Red” is a very well written and eminently readable book directed at sensible citizens in general. Inevitably one can make criticisms such as those made above at the beginning of this review – but more Tables, Figures and Scientific References would have been to the detriment of readability and hence of public education. In some ways “Climate Code Red” did not go far enough. Thus matters that could have been raised include the “true cost” of coal burning-based power (4-5 times the heavily subsidized”market price) and the avoidable death of 0.2 million people each year world-wide from the effects of coal burning pollutants (see Yarra Valley Climate Action Group). Also absent was the likely death of over 6 billion people this century due to unaddressed climate change (according to Dr James Lovelock FRS).

“Climate Code Red” was condemnatory of both scientific reticence and climate sceptic ignorance, and indeed represents a major step towards reversing public ignorance about the Climate Emergency. However “Climate Code Red” could have gone even further in exposing and condemning the core of the problem that lies in a culture of ignoring, of wishful thinking and of “looking away” that is actively promoted by a dominant political and media culture committed to carbon-based economic growth.

Indeed Dr James Hansen recently advocated criminal prosecution of climate criminal corporate heads involved in self-interested misinforming of the public to the detriment of public safety (see James Hansen: Try Fossil Fuel CEOs for “High Crimes Against Humanity”) . In my own modest way I have acted by exposing the extraordinary Culture of Ignoring in Australia’s media, political and academic Establishment over the Climate Emergency and other very serious matters (see “Climate Emergency, Exceptionalism & Ignoring Downunder. Letter to Eminent Australians over Public Honesty”).

There is zero tolerance for lying in science and this now needs to be made a general rule in a world facing a Climate Emergency. “Climate Code Red – the case for emergency action” sets an important baseline for climate reality and public responsibility. This important book should be in every school and institutional library. “Climate Code Red – the case for emergency action” is a cogently argued blueprint for the survival of Humanity and the Biosphere.

“Climate Code Red is a very important and timely book. It adduces the latest scientific evidence that we have already passed a key environmental “tipping point” , argues for a national and global Declaration of a Climate State of Emergency and urges rapid implementation of the “negative CO2 emissions policy” advocated by NASA’s Dr James Hansen i.e. rapid replacement of fossil fuel burning with renewables and rapid installation of mechanisms to reduce atmospheric CO2.

“Climate Code Red” argues the case for a Climate Emergency and Sustainability Emergency. In short, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007) was out of date when it was published (for a Summary of the Summary of the 2007 IPCC AR4 Synthesis report on GreenBlog see: http://green-blog.org/2007/11/21/summary-of-the-summary-of-the-2007-ipcc-ar4-synthesis-report/). The IPCC had a literature cut-off date of 2005 and since then scientific perception of the state of the world has changed dramatically. In particular it has been found that the rate of melting of Arctic sea ice and of Greenland glaciers is much faster than predicted. The top US climate scientist Dr James Hansen (Goddard Space Research Center, NASA) declares that we have already reached a “tipping point” such that Arctic summer ice may be completely gone in several years i.e. the CURRENT atmospheric CO2 concentration of 385 ppm means catastrophic ecosystem change ALREADY and that accordingly we must have NEGATIVE CO2 emissions to bring it back to a safe and sustainable 300-350 ppm (see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7143567.stm ). That necessary reversal of 2 centuries of profligate CO2 pollution can be achieved by a massive shift to renewable power sources, immediate cessation of fossil fuel burning and measures such as re-afforestation, return of pyrolytically-charred biomass (biochar) to soil and, if need be, generation of global dimming SO2 aerosols (see: http://www.thebulletin.org/columns/james-hansen/20080124.html).

“Climate Code Red” is an acutely timely book that declares that “CO2 emissions targets” and even “zero CO2 emissions” are simply not good enough – that we must follow the advice of Dr James Hansen and his colleagues and urgently REVERSE the current dangerous CO2 pollution of our atmosphere. In social actuality this will involve urgently educating the people, media and politicians to what the science is saying in order to achieve a Declaration of a Climate State of Emergency and urgent actions such as those outlined by NASA’s Dr James Hansen.

Part 1 of the book reviews the latest evidence about climate change. It is illustrated by 2 colour pages of figures that make extremely sobering reading as summarized below.

Figure 1 shows a roughly constant rate of various IPCC PREDICTIONS of a constant rate of loss of Arctic summer sea ice from 2000 (about 90% of the mean 1979-1990 extent) to 2100 (only about 10% left). However what will ALARM you is the ACTUAL, precipitous decline of Arctic summer ice in recent years to about 70% of the 1979-1990 mean, indicating that ALL the Arctic summer ice will be gone in several YEARS rather than in 9 decades. This is a massive ecosystem change that is happening NOW with huge implications for polar warming, Greenland ice sheet melting, tundra thawing and further positive feedbacks to accelerate global warming e.g. the albedo flip (change from light-reflecting white ice to light-absorbing dark sea); lubrication of glacier movement by melt water; and methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) from thawing tundra in North America and Siberia.

Figure 2 plots sea level (in metres) versus global mean temperature (oC). There is a remarkably linear relationship as you go from the last glacial maximum 20,000 years ago (sea level minus 120 metres relative to today’s sea level, global mean temperature 9.5oC), to TODAY (15 oC), to the Pliocene 3 million years ago (sea level plus 20 metres, mean temperature 18oC) and the Eocene 40 million years ago (sea level plus 80 metres, mean temperature 19oC). The IPCC projection for sea level rise is less than 1 metre rise by about 18oC (clearly a big underestimate) and a temperature rise predicted to be 3oC on a “business as usual” scenario means a 20 metre rise in sea level.

“Climate Code Red” quotes the following dire comment by Dr James Hansen: “There is strong evidence that the Earth is within 1oC of its highest temperature in the past million years. Oxygen isotopes in the deep sea foraminifera reveal that the earth was last 2oC to 3oC warmer [relative to 2000] around 3 million years ago, with carbon dioxide levels of perhaps 350 to 450 parts per million. It was a dramatically different planet then, with no Arctic sea ice in the warm seasons and sea levels about 25 metres higher, give or take 10 metres.”

The atmosphere is ALREADY at 385 ppm CO2 and CO2 is increasing at about 2.5 ppm per year; global average temperature is about 1oC above the pre-industrial and increasing at about 0.25 oC per decade.

Figure 3 plots “warming per decade in oC” versus time for various scenarios of fossil fuel use identified by past IPCC reports. Thus the worst scenario involving intensive fossil fuel use shows “warming per decade” peaking at a catastrophic 0.65 oC per decade in about 2060. However the ACTUAL data indicate that the world greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is already well above the worst scenario.

Superimposed on Figure 3 are graphical indications how all ecosystems and also forests in particular cope with various rates of climate change. Thus in the PRESENT circumstances of about 0.25 oC warming per decade, the poleward isotherm shift is about 75 kilometers per decade and only about 40% of all ecosystems and only about 20% of forests adapt to the rate of temperature change – an extremely serious situation ALREADY. However we are evidently on track to achieve a 0.4 oC increase per decade within 2 decades, at which point very few ecosystems or forests are able to adapt – a catastrophic situation for a world already suffering serious resource depletion.

Figure 4 plots the “West Equatorial Pacific sea temperature” over the last 1.35 million years. The temperature fluctuates between a minimum of about 25 oC and a maximum of 30 oC, this reflecting successive ice ages and periods of warming and with most of the data lying between 26 oC and 29 oC. From a pre-industrial temperature of about 28.7 oC (about 3 oC warmer than in the prior ice age situation of about 15,000 years ago) the temperature has steadily climbed in a mere 2 centuries to a current 29.7 oC, the hottest it has been for about 0.1 million years. The earth is on track to exceed in a mere several decades the highest temperatures for millions of years.

Figure 5 plots “global carbon emissions in gigatonnes/year” (billions of tonnes/year) from 1950 value of 2 to the present 9.5 gigatonnes carbon /year and thence projections for (a) “business as usual” (rising to a maximum of 16 gigatonnes per year in about 2050 and thence declining in a devastated world) and (b) various scenarios for capping temperature increase to about 2 oC (with carbon emissions declining about 80% from current levels by 2050, noting that much greater cuts now appear to be necessary to achieve this). However we are ALREADY on track to exceed the worst case scenario leading to a catastrophic temperature increase of 5 oC or greater.

This sobering information in a nutshell tells us that we are on track for a “worst case scenario” global biosphere catastrophe with rapid temperature rise in a few decades to take us beyond what the earth has experienced for millions of years.

However the possible scenario advanced by Dr James Hansen is that loss of Arctic summer sea-ice will speed up the ongoing loss of the Greenland ice sheet and a rise of sea levels by as much as 5 metres this century.

A key problem identified in “Climate Code Red” is the short-term global mean temperature increase expected in the next decade. We are already 0.8 oC above the pre-industrial temperature but there is an “in-built” “thermal inertia” capacity due to existing GHG pollution of the atmosphere for a further 0.6 oC increase over and above a baseline current increase of about 0.3 oC per decade and positive feedback elements (e.g. the albedo flip and GHG gas release from thawing tundra) may give a further 0.3 oC. Thus it can be argued that even if we stop GHG pollution NOW we have an inbuilt capacity ALREADY to achieve a 2 oC increase in global temperature over the pre-industrial in the coming decades.

Part 2 of “Climate Code Red” is entitled “Target Practice” and discusses what temperature and GHG pollution targets are realistic or safe. Their essential and important conclusion is that “we suggest the goal is a climate safe for all people and all species over “all generations”. It is quite clear from massive species extinctions so far and to major damage to forests, soil, fisheries and other ecosystems (e.g. the complete loss of Arctic summer ice in several years’ time) that at 385 ppm atmospheric CO2 we have ALREADY passed a “safe point” and that a combination of GHG pollution cessation and “Hansen cooling” is required to return us to a safe and sustainable state.

Part 3 of Climate Code Red is entitled “facing up to the challenge” and deals with what has to be done in practice and how urgent action can be achieved. What has to be achieved is urgent cessation of GHG pollution through a rapid shift to already available renewable technologies plus mechanisms for reducing the existing CO2 in the atmosphere (re-afforestation, putting biomass-derived biochar back in the soil and further mechanisms for global cooling e.g. SO2 aerosols if need be as suggested by Dr Hansen).

Politically such rapid implementation requires global Declaration of a Climate State of Emergency and a successful analogy given is the extraordinary civilian-to-military turnaround of the US economy in World War 2 after Pearl Harbor.

The book concludes with the following assessment: “Many of us – in business and at work, in climate action groups, in NGOs and in political parties – know in our hearts that on climate the world is going backwards very rapidly and the sorts of solutions that currently dominate national and global forums are simply too little, too late because of the continuing pre-occupation with “politics as usual” and “business as usual”. But sometimes we dare to imagine that there could be a really rapid transition, a great national and international mobilisation, to a safe-climate, post-carbon sustainable way of living. We now need to “think the unthinkable”, because the sustainability emergency is not so much a radical idea as now simply a necessary mode of action.”

I would urge you to read “Climate Code Red”, suggest this book to your friends and to libraries and to join with other citizens in demanding a national and global Declaration of a Climate State of Emergency and rapid implementation of a “negative CO2 emissions policy” involving rapid installation of renewable energy sources, cessation of fossil fuel burning and reduction of atmospheric CO2 back to a safe and sustainable level.

The morning sessions of the Convergence were devoted to a series of succinct addresses by a series of very well-informed speakers who variously addressed topics such as the Bali Conference, the Pacific Islands facing inundation, Carbon Equity, Technological Solutions, Opportunities for Business, Forests, Youth activism, Union Solidarity and Green Enterprises, North-South Issues , Social Justice and Equity, Arctic ice loss and Climate Emergency and the urgent need for a Climate State of Emergency Declaration. A repeated theme was indeed the current Climate Emergency and Sustainability Emergency and the need to take effective action to convince society, business and politicians to declare a Climate State of Emergency NOW.

The afternoon sessions began with the launch of “Climate Code Red – the Case for a Sustainability Emergency” by David Spratt (Carbon Equity) and Philip Sutton (Greenleap Strategic Institute) (http://www.climatecodered.net) (I will review this important book in detail on Green Blog shortly but a brief summary is provided below). The Convergence then continued with specific Workshops and Regional Climate Action Group (CAG) get-togethers. A key outcome was the decision by some of these groups to reinforce sentiment from a prior initial meeting by agreeing to form a Coalition for a Climate Emergency Declaration.

The essence of the exhaustively referenced “Climate Code Red” book is that the IPCC 2007 Report was several years out of date when it appeared (their literature for consideration cut-off date was 2005) and that the global situation is far more serious than hitherto surmised. The latest climate research, in particular from NASA’s Dr James Hansen and his colleagues, reveals that we have already reached a “tipping point” in relation to the complete melting of Arctic summer ice (now predicted by some to occur as soon as in a few years’ time). The massive thinning and complete melting of Arctic ice is being driven by “positive feedback” elements (notably the so-called “albedo flip” involved in conversion of light-reflecting white ice to light-absorbing dark sea and consequent further sea and air warming). However this Arctic ice melting is promoting OTHER adverse events with attendant positive feedback effects leading to accelerated warming and ice melting phenomena e.g. the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are melting much faster than hitherto predicted (due to increased polar temperature and lubrication of glacier movements by melt water) and the tundra is thawing (with release of the greenhouse gases methane [CH4] and carbon dioxide [CO2], increased global warming etc).

The authors of “Climate Code Red” agree with NASA’s Dr James Hansen that the appropriate RESPONSE to this present situation of ACTUAL massive ecosystem damage (and with evident initiation of other likely non-linear global warming related events, notably ice sheet and tundra melting) is no longer the Bali-style “finite CO2 emission reduction targets”) or even “zero emissions” but must be an urgent global policy of “negative CO2 emissions”. This will involve cessation of coal power, and other fossil fuel burning, rapid expansion of renewable energy provision and mechanisms to REDUCE existing atmospheric CO2 from 385 ppm to a “safe”, sustainability-consistent 300-350 ppm (e.g. re-forestation, sulphate aerosols and return of carbon to the soil with pyrolytic biomass charring) (see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/…/).

According to Dr James Hansen, in calling for an immediate cessation of coal power:

“If disintegration of these ice sheets passes their tipping points, dynamical collapse could proceed out of our control. If it melts completely, West Antarctica alone contains enough water to cause about 20 feet (6 meters) of sea-level rise. There are also tipping points in life systems. Today, as global temperature increases at a rate of about 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, isotherms (a line of average temperature) are moving poleward at a rate of about 50-60 kilometers (35 miles) per decade. In response, some species are moving.” (see “: http://www.thebulletin.org/columns/james-hansen/20080124.html ).

David Spratt and Philip Sutton crystallized the road ahead as indicated by “Climate Code Red – the Case for a Sustainability Emergency” by 5 key propositions that I have reproduced as headings below and addressed succinctly using my own words and perceptions.

1. “Our goal is a safe-climate future – we have no right to bargain away species or human lives.” Massive species extinctions have already occurred; there is massive ecosystem damage ALREADY; un-ameliorated current 2.5 ppm per year increases in CO2 from the present 385 ppm CO2 threaten even more damage (world coral dies above 450 ppm; the ocean phytoplankton system goes at 500 ppm; sea level rises of 5 meters this century due to Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet loss); current global warming ALREADY harms billions of people; and projected unaddressed global warming acutely threatens 6-9 billion people this century with over 6 billion predicted to perish this century by Professor Lovelock FRS (see: (see: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/…/ ; http://climateemergency.blogspot.com).

2. “We are facing rapid warming impacts: the danger is immediate, not just in the future.” Temperature increases approaching 2 degrees C above the pre-industrial (an average global temperature not seen for a million years) are ALREADY implicit in the system – a global average 0.8 degrees C above pre-industrial ALREADY, with a further 0.6 degrees C in-built from current CO2 levels and 0.4 degrees C per decade temperature increases possible from continuing “business as usual” CO2 pollution and declining carbon sink efficacy (through de-forestation, phytoplankton decline and storm-impacted loss of net CO2 absorption by the Oceans – this has ALREADY occurred with the Southern Ocean). Major UN relief programs are ALREADY being impacted by global warming effects, notably in Africa.

3.”For a safe climate future, strong action is required now to stop emissions and to cool the earth.” According to Dr Hansen we have ALREADY passed the “tipping point” for complete melting of Arctic sea ice and the attendant threats of accelerating Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet melting, carbon sink failure, permafrost loss, phytoplankton and forest loss with non-linear effects and positive feedbacks. The technology and the economic incentives are ALREADY available to replace fossil fuel burning by renewables (essentially ALL renewable energy sources are ALREADY cheaper than the “true cost” of coal–based power which is about 5 times higher than the current “market cost” (see: http://climateemergency.blogspot.com). Cooling the Earth can be further achieved by sulphate aerosols, soil carbon sequestration by adding pyrolytically charred biomass and massive re-forestation.

4. “It is necessary to plan a large-scale transition to a post-carbon economy and society.” There are analogous precedents for rapid, highly profitable, industrial conversion in the WW2 US armaments-geared economic boom, the post-war economic boom, the Asian Tiger economic expansion, the current China and India expansions and the IT revolution of the 1990s. 10,000 times more solar energy hits the Earth than is needed for Man’s current energy needs and the major renewable technologies are ALREADY cheaper than the “true cost” of coal power (see “Renewables: how the numbers stack up”: http://www.newmatilda.com/2007/08/08/how-numbers-stack).

5. “We should recognize a climate and sustainability emergency, because we need to move at a pace far beyond business and politics as usual.” Dramtic industrial turn-around has happened before in war-time (driven by the absolute need for victory), it has happened before in relation to New Technologies (driven by desire for profit) and it has happened in Asia (driven by a post-colonial desire for a better life above the starvation level of the colonial era). Aside from the moral obligations for biosphere and species sustainability, there is an extraordinary economic, social and indeed political advantage from Declaration of a Climate State of Emergency.

We have got to this present parlous state because of LYING – through the myth that the Powerful can take what they want with impunity from the water, air, land and biological resources that are the COMMON Property of ALL Humanity. As soon as these climate criminal, climate genocidal barbarians are made to pay the FULL environmental and human cost of what they are doing, the ALREADY AVAILABLE and economically-dictated renewable, sustainable solutions will become imperative. But before that can happen and as dictated by the climate science, we must ACT to Declare a Climate Emergency, a Climate State of Emergency, and we must do it NOW (see: “Climate Sustainability Emergency. Negative CO2 emissions needed now to save Planet“: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/20133/42/ ; “Climate Emergency, Sustainability Emergency”).

Dr Gideon Polya published some 130 works in a 4 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text “Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds” (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003). He has just published “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950” (G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007: http://mwcnews.net/content/view/1375/247/ and http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com ).