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	<title>Green Blog &#187; climate science</title>
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		<title>Analysis by country of fossil fuel burning-based Carbon Debt and Carbon Credit</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2012/01/25/analysis-by-country-of-fossil-fuel-burning-based-carbon-debt-and-carbon-credit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2012/01/25/analysis-by-country-of-fossil-fuel-burning-based-carbon-debt-and-carbon-credit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2012 17:16:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr Gideon Polya</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[carbon credit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[carbon debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate Genocide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate justice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Rudd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rich versus poor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Third World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[West]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/?p=4131</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fossil fuel burning yielding the greenhouse gas (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major component of man-made global warming. In relation to carbon pollution from the burning of fossil fuels, Net Carbon Debt is equal to the Historical Carbon Debt &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2012/01/25/analysis-by-country-of-fossil-fuel-burning-based-carbon-debt-and-carbon-credit/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fossil fuel burning yielding the greenhouse gas (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major component of man-made global warming. In relation to carbon pollution from the burning of fossil fuels, Net Carbon Debt is equal to the Historical Carbon Debt (from fossil fuel burning since the start of the Industrial  Revolution in circa 1750) minus the Carbon Credit (the residual carbon pollution from fossil fuel burning permitted between now and zero emissions in 2050). As outlined below and based on fossil fuel burning,  Net Carbon Debt (Net Climate Debt) has been estimated for all Carbon Debtor countries and  Net Carbon Credit (Net Climate Credit) has been estimated for all Carbon Creditor countries. This information is crucial for climate justice as the World faces a worsening climate crisis born of GHG profligacy and climate change inaction.</p>
<p><span id="more-4131"></span></p>
<p>The Historical Carbon Debt (aka <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_debt">Climate Debt</a>) of the World has been estimated at 12 Gt CO2 (12 billion tonnes CO2) in 1751-1900 and 334 Gt CO2-e for 1901-2008, for a total of 346 Gt CO2 in the period 1751-2008 (see “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere">Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere</a>”). Most of this greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution has occurred in the last half century. </p>
<p>In a <a href="http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd_000.pdf">2008 letter</a> to Australian PM Kevin Rudd, NASA’s Dr James Hansen provided a breakdown of global responsibility for fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution between 1751 and 2006 that is summarized below as a percentage (%) of the Historical  Climate Debt (1751-2006) of 346 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>Ships/air (4%): 4% of 346 Gt CO2 = 13.84 Gt. This has been allocated proportionately to the other groups as shown below.  </p>
<p><code>India (2.5%) = (0.025 x 346 = 8.65)  + (2.5 x 13.84/96 = 0.36) = 9.01 Gt CO2.<br />
Japan (3.9%) = 13.49 + 0.56 = 14.05 Gt CO2.<br />
UK (6.0%) = 20.76 + 0.87 = 21.63 Gt CO2.<br />
Germany (6.6%) = 22.84 + 0.95 = 23.79 Gt CO2.<br />
Russia (7.4%) = 25.60 + 1.07 = 26.67 Gt CO2.<br />
China (8.2%) = 28.37 + 1.18 = 29.55 Gt CO2.<br />
USA (27.5%) = 95.15 + 3.97 = 99.12 Gt CO2.<br />
Canada-Australia (3.1%) = 10.73 + 0.45 = 11.18 Gt CO2 -> Canada 5.59 Gt CO2 &#038; Australia 5.59 Gt CO2.<br />
Rest of Europe (18.0%) (population 451.2 million) = 62.28 + 2.60 = 64.88 Gt CO2.<br />
Rest of World (12.8%) (population 3,197.1 million) = 44.29 + 1.85 = 46.14 Gt CO2.</code></p>
<div class="quote1">The Carbon Debtors are stealing from the poor Carbon Creditors that are increasingly threatened by the worsening climate crisis.</div>
<p><strong>Post-2010 Carbon Credits (aka Climate Credits) relate to the last amount of GHG pollution the World can sustain before zero emissions in 2050 if it is to avoid a disastrous 2 degree Centigrade temperature rise.</strong> In 2009 the WBGU which advises the German Government on climate change estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2C temperature rise (EU policy), the World must emit no more than 600 billion tones of CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. From this information it was possible to use data for annual per capita GHG pollution (i.e. of CO2-e; see “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita">List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita</a>”) to calculate years left to zero emissions for every country in the world (see “<a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/">Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions</a>”). This analysis based on current per capita pollution of CO2-e (CO2-equivalent i.e. considering GHGs such as methane and nitrous oxide in addition to CO2) was used to estimate Carbon Debt (Climate Debt) in US dollars for most countries (see “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/climatedebtclimatecredit/net-climate-debt">Climate Debt, Climate Credit</a>”).</p>
<p>However a simpler and much more comprehensive analysis of  Carbon Debt (Climate Debt) for all countries of the World is presented below  that reports Carbon Debt in millions of tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuel burning alone (and ignores GHG pollution deriving from  land use (agriculture and forestry), methane, nitrous oxide (N2O) and other GHGs).   </p>
<p><strong>Net Carbon Debt (aka Net Climate Debt) and Net Carbon Credit (aka Net Climate Credit) can be estimated from the difference between Historical Carbon Debt and post-2010 Carbon Credits.</strong> Thus, by way of example, if one accepts that “all men are created equal”, the Carbon Credit for India (population 1,210.2 million out of a total global population of 6,983.2  million) is 600 billion tonnes  CO2 x 1,210.2 million/6,983.2 million = 103.981 billion tones CO2. The Net Carbon Debt for India is therefore 9.010 billion tonnes  CO2 (Historical  Carbon Debt) – 103.981  billion tonnes CO2 (post-2010 Carbon Credit) = &#8211; 94.971 billion tonnes Net Carbon Debt or a Net Carbon Credit of + 94.971 billion tones CO2.</p>
<p>Conversely, the Carbon Credit for the US (population 312.8 million out of a total global population of 6,983.2 million) is 600 billion tonnes  CO2 x 312.8 million/6,983.2 million = 26.876 billion tonnes. The Net Carbon Debt for the US  is therefore 99.120 billion tonnes  CO2 (Historical  Carbon Debt) – 26.876  billion tonnes CO2 (post-2010 Carbon Credit) = 72,244 billion tonnes CO2 Net Carbon Debt.</p>
<p>For “Rest of Europe” countries the Net Carbon Debt is 64,880 million tonnes CO2 /451.2 million people = 143.79 million tonnes CO2/person (Historical Carbon Debt)  &#8211; 600,000 million tonnes /6,983,2 persons = 85.92 tonnes per person (Carbon Credit) =  57.49 tonnes per person i.e. there is a positive Net Carbon Debt which is in magnitude 57.87 x100/85.92 = 67.4% of the 2010-2050 Carbon Credit.</p>
<p>For “Rest of World “ countries the Net Carbon Debt is 46,140 million tonnes CO2/3,197.1 million persons = 14.43 million tonnes CO2/person (Historical Carbon Debt) – 85.92 tonnes per person (Climate Credit) =  -71.49 tonnes per person i.e. there is a positive Net Carbon Credit which is in magnitude 71.49 x100/85.92 = 83.2% of the 2010-2050 Carbon Credit.</p>
<p><strong>Net Carbon Debt (millions of tonnes of CO2) of Climate Debtor countries (descending order).<br />
</strong><br />
<code>United States (72,244), Germany (16,765), United Kingdom (16,277), Russia (14,392), France (3,763), Australia (3,631), Japan (3,069), Italy (3,515), Spain (2,671), Ukraine (2,643), Canada (2,617), Poland (2,204), Romania (1,241),</p>
<p>Netherlands (967), Belgium (627), Greece (624), Czech Republic (611), Portugal (611), Hungary (578), Belarus (548), Sweden (548), Austria (487), Switzerland (455), Bulgaria (426), Serbia (412), Denmark (323), Slovakia (315), Finland (313), Norway (289), Ireland (265), Croatia (248), Macedonia (241), Bosnia &#038; Herzegovina (222), Moldova (206), Lithuania (186), Albania (164), Latvia (128), Macedonia (119), Slovenia (119),</p>
<p>Estonia (78), Cyprus (46), Montenegro (36), Luxembourg (30), Malta (24), Iceland (18),</p>
<p>Jersey (5.7), Andorra (4.9), Isle of Man (4.8), Guernsey (3.6), Greenland (3.3), Faroe Islands (2.8), Liechtenstein (2.1). Monaco (2.1), San Marino (1.9), Gibraltar (1.7),</p>
<p>Saint Barthélemy (0.5), Saint Pierre et Miquelon (0.4), Falklands Islands (0.2), Vatican City (0.05).</code></p>
<p><strong>Net Carbon Credit (millions of tonnes of CO2) of Climate Creditor countries (ascending order).<br />
</strong><br />
<code>Tokelau (0.07), Niue (0.07), Saint Helena Ascension and Trista da Cunha (0.3), Montserrat (0.4), Tuvalu (0.7), Nauru (0.7), Cook Islands (0.8),</p>
<p>Wallis &#038; Futuna (1.0), Anguilla (1.1), Palau (1.5),  British Virgin Islands (2.0), Saint Martin (2.7), Turks and Caicos Islands (3.0), Saint Kitts and Nevis (3.7), Northern Mariana Islands (3.9), Marshall Islands (3.9), Cayman Islands (3.9), American Samoa (4.0),  Bermuda (4.5), Dominica (5.1), Antigua and Barbuda (6.4), Seychelles (6.5), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines  (7.2), Kiribati (7.2),  Aruba (7.3), Federated States of Micronesia (7.3), Tonga (7.5), United States Virgin Islands (7.6), Grenada (7.9),</p>
<p>Curaçao (10), Guam (11), Saint Lucia (12), São Tomé and Principe (12), Samoa (13), Mayotte (15), French Guiana (16), Vanuatu (17), New Caledonia (18), French Polynesia (20), Barbados (20), Belize (22), Maldives (23), Bahamas (25), Martinique (28), Guadeloupe (29), Brunei (30), Cape Verde (35), Suriname (38), Western Sahara (39), Macau (40), Bhutan (51), Equatorial Guinea (51), Comoros (54), Guyana (56), Réunion (58), Fiji (62), Djibouti (65), Timor-Leste (76), Swaziland (86), Bahrain (88), Mauritius (92), Trinidad and Tobago (94),</p>
<p>Guinea-Bissau (101), Gabon (110), Qatar (119), Gambia (127), Botswana (145), Lesotho (157), Namibia (166), Jamaica (193), Mongolia (196), Oman (198), Kuwait (201), Armenia (234), Mauritania (239), Uruguay (241), Panama (243), Liberia (249), Puerto Rico (266), Republic of the Congo (296), Occupied Palestinian Territories (298), Lebanon (304), Costa Rica (308), New Zealand (317),  Georgia (319), Central African Republic (321), Turkmenistan (365), Singapore (371), Eritrea (387), Kyrgyzstan (389), Togo (411), Nicaragua (416), Sierra Leone (429), El Salvador (445), Jordan (447), Paraguay (453), Laos (454), Libya (459), Papua New Guinea (501), Hong Kong (508), Tajikistan (544), Israel (558), Honduras (587), United Arab Emirates (591), South Sudan (591), Burundi (613), Benin (651), Azerbaijan (651), Dominican Republic(670), Somalia (683), Haiti (721), Guinea (731), Bolivia (745), Tunisia (763), Rwanda (766), Cuba (804), Chad (806), Zimbabwe (912), Senegal (919), Zambia (933), Malawi (935), Cambodia (958),</p>
<p>Ecuador (1,035), Mali (1,038), Guatemala (1,052), Niger (1,125), Burkina Faso (1,125), Kazakhstan (1,188), Chile (1,233),  Madagascar (1,349), Cameroon (1,387), Angola (1,402), Sri Lanka (1,476), Syria (1,527), Côte d’Ivoire (1,530), Mozambique (1,648), Taiwan (1,660), Yemen, (1,704), North Korea (1,719), Ghana (1,732), Nepal (1,903), Saudi Arabia (1,940), Uzbekistan (2,002), Malaysia (2,026), Venezuela (2,108), Peru (2,130), Sudan (2,209),  Iraq (2,295), Afghanistan (2,313), Morocco (2,317), Uganda (2,355), Algeria (2,595), Kenya (2,760), Argentina (2,868), Tanzania (3008), Colombia (3,310), Myanmar (3,456), South Korea 3,473), South Africa (3,616), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (4,844), Thailand (4,970), Turkey (5,270), Iran (5,429), Egypt (5,811), Ethiopia (5,865), Vietnam (6,137), Philippines (6,721), Mexico (8,028),</p>
<p>Bangladesh (10,173), Nigeria (11,617), Pakistan (12,737), Brazil (13,753), Indonesia (16,989), China (85,558), India (94,971).</code></p>
<h3>Some major observations arise from this data set</h3>
<p>1. Some will argue that it is “unfair” to the major polluters of the European countries to saddle them with the Carbon Debt of previous generations. However these same countries have no problem with continuing to run up huge national debts, with demanding debt repayment by vulnerable countries (as in the current Eurozone crisis) or with crippling Third World countries with massive debt (for a damning account read John Perkins’ “Confessions of  an Economic Hit Man”). Indeed Germany finally paid its last reparations for World War 1 (1914-1918) in 2010 and 96.5% of the 1751-2008 Historical Carbon Debt considered in this analysis was generated between 1901 and 2008. It should be also noted that this analysis is actually rather unfair to India, China , the “Rest of World” and indeed much of the “Rest of Europe” because it ignores the reality that most of these countries were variously subject in this period of 1751-2006 to colonial subjugation or crippling hegemony by the major polluters, namely the UK, Germany, the USA, Russia and Japan.</p>
<p>2. This analysis is only concerned with available data on Carbon Debt arising from the burning of fossil fuels and ignores Carbon Debt from greenhouse gas (GHG) production from deforestation and methanogenic livestock production. Using the data that methane (CH4) is 72 times the global warming potential (GWP) of carbon dioxide (CO2) on a 20 year time frame (as compared to 25 times worse on a 100 year time frame) World Bank analysts have re-assessed annual global GHG pollution as 50% bigger than hitherto thought with methanogenic livestock production contributing over 51% of the bigger figure (see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang. “<a href="http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf">Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?</a>”, World Watch, November/December 2009). However this re-assessment in turn needs further re-assessment because Dr Drew Shindell and colleagues at NASA have shown that CH4 is actually 105 times worse than CO2 as a GHG on a 20 year time frame when aerosol impacts are taken into account (see  Drew T. Shindell , Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch ,   Gavin A. Schmidt ,   Nadine Unger and Susanne E. Bauer , “<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716">Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions</a>” and Shindell et al (2009), <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5953/716.figures-only">Fig.2</a>).</p>
<p>3. The set of all the Carbon Debtor (Climate Debtor) countries include all the European countries and  Japan. The set of all the Carbon Creditor (Climate Credit) countries includes all the non-European countries , excluding Japan, as well as the European colonies New Zealand and Israel (that could arguably be put in the “Rest of Europe” category).</p>
<p>4. One can convert the Carbon Debt or Carbon Credit from units of “million tonnes of CO2” simply by multiplying by whatever carbon price you desire in, say, US dollars. Thus a genuine Carbon Price of US$100 per tonne of CO2 would permit a transition from coal- and gas-burning for electric power. Using this value the Carbon Debt of the US would be 72, 244 million tonnes CO2  x $100/ tonne CO2 = $7,200, 244  million = $7.2 trillion. Likewise the Carbon Credit of China and India would be $8.6 trillion and $9.5 trillion, respectively.</p>
<p>5. The US is steadily increasing its <a href="http://www.usdebtclock.org/">current $15.3 trillion national debt</a> and is devaluing this debt by printing money. Conversely, the US has a 72,244 million tonne CO2 ($7.2 trillion @ $100 per tonne CO2) Net Carbon Debt but is steadily increasing this debt at the rate of 6,946 million tonnes  CO2-e per year (2008) i.e. the US Carbon Debt is increasing at about 10% per year. The US under Obama shows no indication of reducing its GHG pollution profligacy. Obama’s declining to approve the current Keystone XL pipeline proposal to carry oil from Canadian tar sands to Texas may only be a temporary reprieve to keep pro-environmentalists on side in a Presidential election year. According to leading US climate scientist Dr James Hansen, exploitation of the Canadian tar sands will mean “game over” for the Planet.</p>
<p>6. Australia is the worst annual per capita GHG polluter of the Carbon Debtor countries but shows no indication of changing its disproportionate  GHG pollution. Australia’s Domestic plus exported GHG pollution was 1,077 million tonnes CO2-e in 2000 but under the Australian Labor Government’s dishonest “Carbon Tax-ETS Scheme” this is estimated to increase to 1,799 million tonnes by 2020 (a 1.7-fold increase) and to 4,490 million tonnes CO2-e by 2050 (a 4.2-fold increase). In vain top US, UK, German and Australian climate scientists and biologists demand that global GHG pollution must be rapidly reduced to zero emissions in about 2050 and that the atmospheric CO2 concentration must return to about 300 parts per million (ppm) from the current damaging 394 ppm (increasing at 2.4 ppm per year) (see “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm">300,org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm</a>”).  Australia’s Net Carbon Debt (3,631 million tonnes CO2) is currently increasing at about 1,415 million tonnes CO2-e per year i.e. at 39% per year.  </p>
<p>7. “Annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included,  64 being the 2010 figure). The major Climate Creditor countries are vastly lower in per capita GHG pollution than Australia (see “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/">Climate Genocide</a>”). Thus Australia’s current annual per capita of 64 tonnes CO2-e per person per year (with Exported GHG included)  is 71 times that of Bangladesh.</p>
<p>8. The Carbon Debtors are stealing from the poor Carbon Creditors that are increasingly threatened by the worsening climate crisis. The Carbon Debtors (Climate Debtors) should be held to account through public advocacy, boycotts, sanctions, green tariffs, International Court of Justice (ICJ) litigations and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions  applied against Climate Debtor countries by Climate Creditor countries, notably the numerous Island States and major mega-delta countries such as Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, China, Egypt, Nigeria, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The climate criminals and Carbon Debtors (Climate Debtors) must be brought to account before it is too late.</p>
<p>The climate activist group Climate Justice Now! has stated that “Communities in the global south as well as low-income communities in the industrialised north have borne the toxic burden of this fossil fuel extraction, transportation and production. Now these communities are facing the worst impacts of climate change &#8211; from food shortages to the inundation of whole island nations” and demands “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/climatedebtclimatecredit/climate-justice-now">Huge financial transfers</a> from north to south, based on the repayment of climate debts and subject to democratic control. The costs of adaptation and mitigation should be paid for by redirecting military budgets, innovative taxes and debt cancellation”. The present fossil fuel-based Carbon Debt analysis provides a quantitative basis for such transfers and should be used by Island States,  mega-delta countries and other threatened Climate Creditor countries to force urgently needed climate change action.</p>
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		<title>Island Nations can fight Climate Genocide with Carbon Debt &amp; Carbon Credit Analysis</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/12/16/island-nations-can-fight-climate-genocide-with-carbon-debt-carbon-credit-analysis/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/12/16/island-nations-can-fight-climate-genocide-with-carbon-debt-carbon-credit-analysis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:04:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr Gideon Polya</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carbon Credit Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate conference]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate Creditor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COP17]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Copenhagen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Durban]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/?p=3620</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At the 2011 Durban Climate Conference the US, with the help of its climate criminal lackeys Australia and Canada, again succeeded in preventing requisite international climate change action. It was reported that Island States had again pleaded with other representatives &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/12/16/island-nations-can-fight-climate-genocide-with-carbon-debt-carbon-credit-analysis/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At the 2011 Durban Climate Conference the US, with the help of its climate criminal lackeys Australia and Canada, again succeeded in preventing requisite international climate change action. It was reported that Island States had again pleaded with other representatives to avert “<a href="http://www.rtcc.org/policy/island-states-appeal-for-cop17-ministers-to-avert-%E2%80%9Cclimate-genocide%E2%80%9D/">climate genocide</a>” but their pleas fell on deaf ears at Durban, as at Cancun, as at Copenhagen.</p>
<p>However  it is possible to quantitate the  Climate Debt incurred by profligate high polluters such as the US Alliance countries and the Climate Credit allowing low polluters to advance economically on a path to eventual zero emissions in circa 2050. Quantitative, country by country analysis of the Climate Debt of Climate Debtor countries  versus the Climate Credit of Climate Creditor countries may prove to be a valuable litigation weapon in the fight of Island States for their very physical survival. This approach may indeed help avert “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/">climate genocide</a>”.</p>
<p><span id="more-3620"></span></p>
<p>The contribution of each country to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) can be calculated as Historical Climate Debt (1751-2006 CO2 pollution)  minus Climate Credit (its fair share of the World’s terminal CO2 pollution budget of 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050). With  CO2 pollution valued at $100 per tonne CO2, mostly European countries and Japan have Net Climate Debts ranging up to $9.7 trillion (for the USA) whereas non-European countries typically have Net Climate  Credits ranging up to $6.5 trillion for India.</p>
<p>The World is increasingly threatened by man-made global warming  due to pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs),  principally  carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), with this GHG pollution deriving mostly from fossil  fuel burning and from land use (agriculture and deforestation). According to I.C. Prentice et al “Before the Industrial  Era, circa 1750, the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration was 280 +/- 10 ppm for several thousand years. It has risen continuously since then, reaching 367 ppm in 1999”  (see “<a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-03.PDF">The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide</a>”, coordinating lead author I.C. Prentice). The atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 394 ppm in 2010  with  a rate of increase of  2.4 ppm per year (see “<a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/">Recent Mauna Loa CO2</a>”, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Note that CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) is the greenhouse gas (GHG) amount taking all GHGs other than  water (H2O) into account and expressing this in terms of CO2 equivalents, CO2 being largely responsible for the atmospheric GHG effect (excluding H2O) (see “2011 Climate Change Course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course ).</p>
<h3>Historical Climate Debt</h3>
<p>The Historical <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_debt">Climate Debt</a> of the World has been estimated at 12 Gt CO2 (12 billion tonnes CO2) in 1751-1900 and 334 Gt CO2-e for 1901-2008, for a total of 346 Gt CO2 in the period 1751-2008 (see “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere">Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere</a>”).</p>
<p>In a 2008 letter to Australia PM Kevin Rudd,  NASA’s Dr James Hansen provided  a breakdown  of global responsibility for fossil fuel-derived CO2 pollution between 1751 and 2006 (see “<a href="http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd_000.pdf">Letter to PM Kevin Rudd by Dr James Hansen</a>”, 2008) that is summarized below as a percentage (%) of the Historical  Climate Debt (1751-2006) of 346 Gt CO2.</p>
<p><code>Ships/air (4%) :  4% of 346 Gt CO2  = 13.84 Gt. This has been allocated proportionately to the other groups.  </p>
<p>Thus India (2.5%) = (0.025 x 346 = 8.65)  + (2.5 x 13.84/96 = 0.36) = 9.01 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>Japan (3.9%) = 13.49 + 0.56 = 14.05 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>UK (6.0%) = 20.76 + 0.87 = 21.63 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>Germany (6.6%) = 22.84 + 0.95 = 23.79 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>Russia (7.4%) = 25.60 + 1.07 = 26.67 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>China (8.2%) = 28.37 + 1.18 = 29.55 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>USA (27.5%) = 95.15 + 3.97 = 99.12 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>Canada-Australia (3.1%) = 10.73 + 0.45 = 11.18 Gt CO2 -> Canada 5.59 Gt CO2 &#038; Australia 5.59 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>Rest of Europe (18.0%) = 62.28 + 2.60 = 64.88 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>Rest of World (12.8%) = 44.29 + 1.85 = 46.14 Gt CO2</code></p>
<p>The above compilation shows the Climate Debt for major polluters in the period 1750-2006. It should be noted that this is a big under-estimate of Historical Carbon Debt because it is based solely on fossil fuel-derived CO2 and ignores that due to other GHGs, cement manufacture and de-forestation. For countries in the “Rest of Europe” category, their Historical Climate Debt was calculated  based on their  proportion of the 2011 population (see “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population">List of countries by population</a>” (2011)). Thus according to the UN Population Division (see: http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp ) Europe had a population of 738.2 million in 2010 and accordingly the “Rest of Europe” has a population of 738.2 million – 62.3 million (UK) – 81.7 million (German) – 142.9 million (Russia) = 451.3 million. Thus, for example, Switzerland (part of “Rest of Europe”) has a population of 7.9 million and its Historical Climate Debt is 7.9 million x 64.88 Gt CO2 /451.3 million = 1.14 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>For countries in the “Rest of World” category, their Historical Climate Debt was also calculated  based on their  proportion of the 2011 population (see “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population">List of countries by population</a>” (2011), Wikipedia). Thus according to the <a href="http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp">UN Population Division</a> the World had a population of 6,980.3 million and accordingly the “Rest of World” population = 6,980.3 million   &#8211;  62.3 million (UK) – 81.7 million (Germany) – 142.9 million (Russia) – 1,210.2 million (India) – 1,339.7 million (China) – 127.7 million (Japan) – 312.7 million (USA) – 34.5 million (Canada) – 22.8 million (Australia) – 451.3  (“Rest of Europe” ) = 3,194.5 million.  Thus, for example, Turkey (part of “Rest of World” ) has a population of 73.7 million and so its Historical Climate Debt is 73.7 million  x 46.14 Gt CO2/3,194.5 million  = 1.06 Gt CO2.</p>
<p>It should be noted that this analysis is rather unfair to India, China , the “Rest of World” and indeed much of the “Rest of Europe” because it ignores the reality that most of these countries were variously subject in this period of 1751-2006 to colonial subjugation or crippling hegemony by the major polluters, namely the UK, Germany, the USA, Russia and Japan (see “<a href="http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/">Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950</a>”, “<a href="http://janeaustenand.blogspot.com/">Jane Austen and the Black Hole of British History</a>” and William Blum’s “Rogue State”).</p>
<p>Further, one can value this Historical Carbon debt by applying a Carbon Price and here we will use $100 per tonne CO2, roughly the price that could achieve a transition from dirty coal and gas burning to clean, renewable wind energy. Thus the Historical Climate Debt of the US can be expressed either as 99.12 Gt CO2 or as 99.12 Gt CO2 x $100 / t CO2 = $9,912 billion = $9.912 trillion. By way of comparison, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29">GDP</a> of the US is currently $14.5 trillion. China has an Historical Climate Debt of 29.55 Gt CO2 or $2.955 trillion.</p>
<p>Of course a Carbon Price of $100 per tonne CO2 is  only based on what is required to implement  wind power competitively  in the current World Order. A more valid price would be that based on the value of a human life and the avoidable death associated with  carbon burning. Thus at a &#8220;value of a statistical life&#8221; (VOSL) of $7.6 million per person  ($73 billion pa for10,000 pa  Australian carbon burning-related deaths) and $9 billion pa in fossil fuel subsidies, the minimum Carbon Price to cover carbon burning-derived deaths and carbon burning subsidies is $554 per tonne of carbon as compared to the recently Australia legislated Carbon Price of $23 per tonne CO2-e (see “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/2011-carbon-burning">Australian carbon burning-related deaths and carbon burning subsidies</a> => minimum Carbon Price of A$554 per tonne carbon”).</p>
<p>Historical Climate Debt can be expressed on a per capita basis simply by dividing the Historical Climate Debt for a country  (e.g. see the data tabulated above ) by the present population of the country. For all “Rest of World” countries, the Per Capita Historical Carbon Debt (US$ per person) = 46.14 billion tonnes CO2 X $100 per tonne CO2/ 3,194.5 million persons = $1,444.4 per person.  For all “Rest of Europe” countries, the Per Capita Historical Climate Debt (US$ per person) = 64.88 billion tonnes CO2 X $100 per tonne CO2/ 451.3 million persons =  US$14,376.2 per person.</p>
<h3>Post-2010 Climate Credits</h3>
<p>In 2009 the WBGU which advises the German Government on climate change estimated that for a 75% chance of avoiding a disastrous 2C temperature rise (EU policy), the World must emit no more than 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and zero emissions in 2050. From this information it was possible to use data for annual per capita GHG pollution (i.e. of CO2-e; see “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita">List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita</a>”) to calculate years left to zero emissions for every country in the  world (see “<a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/">Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions</a>”). If we accept that “all men are created equal” then the annual per capita “terminal budget “ share is 600 Gt CO2/ (40 years x 7 billion people) = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year.</p>
<p>Thus relative to mid-2010, Australia (population 22.8 million in 2011) at its current rates of GHG pollution had only 1.1 years left to zero emissions and thus by about August 2011 had used up its” fair share of this terminal global GHG pollution budget and is now stealing the entitlement (Climate Credits) of other countries i.e. it  has approximately zero Carbon Credits. A more precise calculation of Australia’s Carbon Credits is 2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 22.8 million persons x 1.1 years = 53.7 Mt CO2 (million tonnes CO2) = 0.054 Gt CO2. Note that these estimates derive from consideration of CO2-e.</p>
<p>While the Climate Credits of the US = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 312.7 million persons x 3.1 years = 2,074 Mt CO2 =  2.074 Gt CO2 = $207.4 billion , the Climate Credits of China = 2.14 t CO2 per person per year x 1,339.7 million persons x 18.5 years = 53,039 Mt CO2 =  53.04 Gt CO2 = $5,304 billion. .</p>
<p>These Climate Credits can be expressed either  as  Gt CO2 or in US dollars by applying a Carbon Price of $100 per tonne CO2 e.g. the  Climate Credits of Australia, the US and China  are $5.4 billion, $207 billion and $5.3 trillion, respectively.</p>
<p>Per capita Climate Credits each country can simply be obtained by dividing Carbon Credits by the population. Per capita Climate Credits (US$ per person) = years to zero emissions x 2.14 tonnes CO2 per person per year  X $100 per tonne CO2.  </p>
<p><strong>Net Climate Debt and Net Climate Credit</strong> </p>
<p>Net Climate Debt equals  Historical  Climate Debt minus Climate  Credits. Thus the Net Climate Debt of the US is + $9.912 trillion &#8211; $0.207 trillion = $9.705 trillion. In contrast China has a Net Climate Debt of $2.955 trillion &#8211; $5.304 billion = &#8211; $2.349 trillion i.e. China has a Net Climate Credit of + $2.349 trillion.</p>
<p>Listed below is the Per Capita Net Climate Debt (US$ per person) for all the Climate Debtor countries (those with a Net Climate Debt) and the Net Climate Credit for all the Climate Creditor countries (those with a Net Climate Credit). One notes that just as the debtor countries of Europe are expected to meet their financial obligations, so the Climate Debtor countries must also be brought to account for their profligacy. The data is expressed country by country as Per Capita Historical Climate Debt minus Per Capita Climate Credit = Net Per Capita Climate Debt (US$ person). To obtain the total Net Climate Debt or Net Climate Credit for a country simply multiply the per capita value (in US$ per person) by the population (see “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population">List of countries by population</a>”).</p>
<p><strong>Net Per Capita Climate Debt (US$ per person) of Climate Debtor countries</strong></p>
<p><code>United Kingdom (33,307), United States (31,035), Germany (27,856), Australia (23,900 or 24,265 if including the effect of its huge GHG Exports on its Climate Credits), Russia (17,529), Canada (15,560), Luxembourg (13,649), Estonia (13,520), Ireland (13, 456), Czech Republic (13,263), Netherlands (13,242), Belgium (13,306), Finland (13,199), Denmark (13,135), Norway (13,028), Greece (12,942), Cyprus (12,878), Slovenia (12,857), Austria (12,835), Iceland (12,835), Ukraine (12,793), Poland (12,771), Belarus (12,579), Slovakia (12,707), Spain (12,707), Italy (12,707), France (12,600), Sweden (12,322),  Switzerland (12,193), Bulgaria (12.300), Serbia &#038; Montenegro (12,300), Hungary (12,300), Portugal (12,236), Malta (11,851), Croatia (11,765), Macedonia (11,723), Romania (11,573), Lithuania (11,509), Bosnia &#038; Herzegovina (10,931), Latvia (11,780), Japan (10,017), Moldova (8,213), Albania (7,357).</p>
<p>Belize (1,273), Qatar (1,166), Guyana (1,148), Malaysia (1,038), United Arab Emirates (1,016), Kuwait (1,228), Papua New Guinea (909), Brunei (845), Antigua &#038; Barbuda (845), Zambia (824), Bahrain (802), Trinidad &#038; Tobago (738), Panama (653), New Zealand (653), Botswana (567), Saudi Arabia (503), Venezuela (460), Indonesia (417), Equatorial Guinea (374), Turkmenistan (353 ), Singapore (353), Liberia (332), Nicaragua (289), Oman (246), Palau (246), Brazil (246), Uruguay (225), Mongolia (135), Israel (135), Nauru (118), South Korea (53), Kazakhstan (32), Libya (11), Myanmar (11).</code></p>
<p><strong>Net Per Capita Climate Credit (US$ per person) of Climate Creditor countries</strong></p>
<p><code>Taiwan (11), Cambodia (75), Peru (118), Paraguay (118), South Africa (182), Argentina (225), Central African Republic (268), Suriname (353), Gabon (396), Ecuador (439), Bolivia (460), Cameroon (589), Iran (589), Côte d’Ivoire (610), Seychelles (631), Guatemala (631), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (631), Uzbekistan (674), Azerbaijan (824), Angola (867), Bahamas (888), Benin (931), Zimbabwe (931), Laos (974), Mexico (974), Nepal (995), Colombia (995), Namibia (995), Chile (995), Congo, Republic (1,124), Madagascar (1,124), Jamaica (1,166), Barbados (1,209), Mauritania (1,316), Turkey (1,316), Costa Rica (1,423), Lebanon (1,466), North Korea (1,530), Thailand (1,573), Jordan (1,701), China (1,753), Honduras (1,830), Sudan (1,915), Algeria (2,236), Iraq (2,236), Sierra Leone (2,236), Syria (2,408), Tunisia (2,729), Dominican Republic (2,964), St Kitts &#038; Nevis (3,221), Nigeria (3,221), Fiji (3,221), Guinea (3,371), Mauritius (3,371), Cuba (3,542), Togo (3,542), Vanuatu (3,692), Philippines (3,692), Malawi (3,692), Mali (3,884), Chad (3,884), Sri Lanka (4,077).</p>
<p>Uganda (4,269), Dominica (4,269), St Lucia (4,269), Egypt (4,483), Niue (4,483), Ghana (4,483), Grenada (4,719), El Salvador (4,976), Guinea-Bissau (4,976), Tanzania (4,976), Djibouti (4,976), Pakistan (5,254), Samoa (5,254), Tonga (5,254), Morocco (5,575), Senegal (5,575), Georgia (5,575), Armenia (5,896), St Vincent &#038; Grenadines (6,281), Kenya (6,281), Maldives (6,666), Kyrgyzstan (6,666), Burkina Faso (6,666), India (7,837), Cook Islands (7,137), Bhutan (7,629), Yemen (8,207), Tajikistan (8,207), Mozambique (8,207), Rwanda (8,207), Burundi (8,207), Lesotho (8,849), Swaziland (8,849), Eritrea (9,577), Haiti (9,577), Solomon Islands (12,573), Vietnam (12,573), Cape Verde (12,573), Niger (12,573), Ethiopia (12,573), São Tomé and Príncipe (13,985), Afghanistan (15,697), The Gambia (15,697), Bangladesh (15,697), Comoros (20,598), Kiribati (24,278).</code></p>
<h3>Summary</h3>
<p>Using readily available data this analysis attempts  to estimate Net Per Capita Climate Debt or Net Per Capita Climate Credit for all countries of the World. Note that it is domestic GHG pollution that is being considered  and thus the grievous culpability of fossil fuel exporters like Australia and Saudi Arabia is not evident from this data set, although all the major fossil fuel exporters end up in the Climate Debtor list. The assumptions and methodology  are clear, this enabling  more precise revisions. The total amounts of Net Climate Debt and Net Climate Credit  can be readily determined from the above  per capita data simply by multiplying by the population. Thus, by way of key examples, the Net Climate Debt is $9.7 trillion (for the USA), $2.3 trillion (Germany), $2.1 trillion (UK), $0.5 trillion (Australia) and $0.5 trillion (Canada) whereas the Net Carbon Credit is $6.5 trillion (India), $2.3 trillion (China), $2.2 trillion (Bangladesh) and $0.9 trillion (Pakistan).</p>
<p>After the disastrous inaction of the Durban Climate Conference and the derisory First World offer of a $100 billion climate fund for poor nations, it is apparent that the greedy climate criminals (notably the US, Australia and Canada) and the other Climate Debtors will not repay their debt nor indeed stop polluting the atmosphere. One hopes that the Climate Creditor countries will insist on full reparations for a polluted planet. Hopefully this analysis will be useful in International Court of Justice (ICJ) litigations and International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions  against Climate Debtor countries by Climate Creditor countries. I would urge everybody, and in particular citizens of threatened  megadelta and Island States, to inform their leaders about this Climate Debt and Climate Credit analysis. The First World EU governments in the current EU financial crisis are   insisting on financial debt repayment and fiscal responsibility by debtor countries. Climate Creditor countries should likewise insist on repayment of Climate Debt and a rapid global move to cessation of greenhouse gas pollution. The Climate Debtors are stealing from the poor Climate Creditors and should be held to account by the Climate Creditors at the ICJ and the ICC.</p>
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		<title>The Durban climate deal saves the talks, but not the climate</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/12/12/the-durban-climate-deal-saves-the-talks-but-not-the-climate/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/12/12/the-durban-climate-deal-saves-the-talks-but-not-the-climate/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Dec 2011 21:15:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Simon Leufstedt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The hopes that COP17 would result in a new and strong climate deal were, to be frank, extremely low if not nonexistent. With only three days left of negotiations, UN chief Ban Ki-moon even warned that an agreement would probably &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/12/12/the-durban-climate-deal-saves-the-talks-but-not-the-climate/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The hopes that COP17 would result in a new and strong climate deal were, to be frank, extremely low if not nonexistent. With only three days left of negotiations, UN chief Ban Ki-moon even warned that an agreement would probably be “beyond our reach &#8211; for now.” </p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;It may be true, as many say: the ultimate goal of a comprehensive and binding climate change agreement may be beyond our reach – for now,&#8221; <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/06/durban-climate-change-deal-unlikely">Ban Ki-moon said</a>. </p></blockquote>
<p><span id="more-3582"></span></p>
<p>The UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa, were supposed to end this past Friday night after nearly two weeks of negotiations. But the talks continued long into Sunday night with the delegates desperately trying to come up with at least some sort of agreement to avoid another <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/category/global-warming/copenhagen-2009/">COP15-style failure</a>. In the very last hour the delegates managed to agree on a deal. This outcome was largely thanks to <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/11/durban-climate-deal-struck">three powerful women politicians</a>, one of them being EU climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard.</p>
<p>And so the 17th climate summit ended with an agreement that at least the EU believes commits all major developing countries such as China, USA and India among others, to accept legally binding targets on greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately these binding targets <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21273-climate-summit-ends-with-promise-for-a-deal-in-2020.html">won’t come into force until 2020</a>, or even later in worst case. So basically, “the deal saves the talks&#8221;, but not the climate. </p>
<p>By waiting till 2020 to enforce cuts in greenhouse gas emissions our leaders have successfully ignored the 2 degrees target, which scientists regard as the final upper limit of safety against irreversible climate chaos, and set us on a path towards an increase of 4 degrees in global temperatures. Nnimmo Bassey, chair of Friends of the Earth International, said that &#8220;delaying real action till 2020 is a crime of global proportions” and that this delay would mean a 4 degrees temperature increase.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;This means the world is on track to a 4C temperature rise, a death sentence for Africa, small island states and the poor and vulnerable worldwide. The richest 1% of the world have decided that it is acceptable to <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/11/10/occupy-earth-nature-is-the-99-too/">sacrifice the 99%</a>.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Greenpeace International director Kumi Naidoo said that &#8220;the chance of averting catastrophic climate change is slipping through our hands with every passing year that nations fail to agree on a rescue plan for the planet.&#8221;</p>
<p>But not everyone agreed that the Durban deal was a failure. Chris Huhne, the UK&#8217;s secretary of state for energy and climate change, was a bit more optimistic and said that COP17 was a &#8220;<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/modest-gains-as-un-climate-deal-struck-6275548.html">significant step forward</a>&#8220;.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;For the first time ever we have a process within the [UNFCCC] where there are regular reviews of the scientific evidence and seeing where the commitments of countries are. [...] Up to now we have not even had a commitment to [be guided by] the scientific evidence,&#8221; <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2011/dec/11/durban-climate-change-conference-2011-climate-change">he said</a>. &#8220;If you talk to the Russians, they will tell you their scientists say there is no global warming.&#8221; </p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=40695&#038;Cr=climate">Ban Ki-moon welcomed the outcome</a> and said that the deal is “essential for stimulating greater action and for raising the level of ambition and the mobilization of resources to respond to the challenges of climate change.”</p>
<blockquote><p>“Taken together, these agreements represent an important advance in our work on climate change,” Ban said, calling on countries to “quickly implement these decisions and to continue working together in the constructive spirit evident in Durban.” </p></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet tw-align-center"><p>We made it. EU&#8217;s strategy worked. We got a roadmap that marks a breakthrough for international fight against climate change. Good night.</p>
<p>&mdash; Connie Hedegaard (@CHedegaardEU) <a href="https://twitter.com/CHedegaardEU/status/145735297118904320" data-datetime="2011-12-11T05:22:57+00:00">December 11, 2011</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>So what’s in the Durban deal? Reuters has <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/11/us-climate-deal-idUSTRE7BA07F20111211">a good rundown</a> on what was agreed on this past week during COP17. If you can handle the dry legal language you can find the <a href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php">final texts here</a>. The text talks about a process to &#8220;develop a new protocol, another legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force that will be applicable to all Parties to the UN climate convention.&#8221; What the terms &#8220;legal instrument&#8221; and &#8220;agreed outcome&#8221; really means for a future climate deal is still pretty uncertain. It wouldn’t surprise me if countries will use these unclear terms to delay much-needed action on climate as the UN process develops. The delegates in Durban also made little progress on the much-needed Green Climate Fund.</p>
<blockquote><p>“The Durban talks made headway on agreeing the design of Green Climate Fund to channel up to $100 billion a year by 2020 to poorer nations, but achieved little on establishing where the money will come from to fill it”, Reuters writes.</p></blockquote>
<p>Celine Charveriat, director of campaigns for Oxfam, said that &#8220;governments must immediately turn their attention to raising the ambition of their emissions cuts targets and filling the Green Climate Fund.” If countries doesn’t quickly intensify their emissions cuts “we could still be in store for a 10-year timeout on the action we need to stay under two degrees [of temperature increase],&#8221; Charveriat said.</p>
<p>So despite the delegates reaching an agreement in the very last hour, and then some, this was another COP failure. But what would you expect from a summit which received minimal <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2010/06/29/the-mass-media-and-our-environment/">media</a> attention and interest from world leaders? Our climate will die while we&#8217;re busy saving the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2011/dec/11/durban-climate-change-conference-2011-climate-change">banks</a> and <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2010/08/09/a-picture-is-worth-how-our-economy-is-killing-the-planet/">a failed economic system</a>.</p>
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		<title>IEA warns world headed for irreversible climate change in five years, greenhouse emissions soaring</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/11/11/iea-warns-world-headed-for-irreversible-climate-change-in-five-years-greenhouse-emissions-soaring/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/11/11/iea-warns-world-headed-for-irreversible-climate-change-in-five-years-greenhouse-emissions-soaring/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Nov 2011 00:21:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Simon Leufstedt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[carbon emissions]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[International Energy Agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/?p=3478</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released their yearly World Energy Outlook report. The energy report contained a very urgent call for action on climate. The IEA report warned that if our energy infrastructure is not rapidly changed the &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/11/11/iea-warns-world-headed-for-irreversible-climate-change-in-five-years-greenhouse-emissions-soaring/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released their yearly <a href="http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/">World Energy Outlook</a> report. The energy report contained a very urgent call for action on climate. The IEA report warned that if our energy infrastructure is not rapidly changed the world will head towards irreversible climate change in five years. At the same time the US department of energy released new figures showing a “monster increase” in greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p><span id="more-3478"></span></p>
<p>IEA predicts that over the next five years the world will build so many dirty factories, fossil-fuelled power stations and energy inefficient buildings that it will become impossible for us to stop global warming from rushing past safe climate levels. And so they warn that our last chance against dangerous climate change will be lost forever. Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, said that &#8220;the door is closing.&#8221; </p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I am very worried – if we don&#8217;t change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum for safety. The door will be closed forever.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Everything that produces greenhouse gas emissions, such as dirty coal plants and other fossil-fueled power stations, which are being constructed from now on, will continue to spew out carbon for decades to come. And this will lock the world on a path towards irreversible climate change with disastrous effects. The <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-fuel-infrastructure-climate-change">Guardian reports</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>“If the world is to stay below 2C of warming, which scientists regard as the limit of safety, then emissions must be held to no more than 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; the level is currently around 390ppm. But the world&#8217;s existing infrastructure is already producing 80% of that &#8220;carbon budget&#8221;, according to the IEA&#8217;s analysis, published on Wednesday. This gives an ever-narrowing gap in which to reform the global economy on to a low-carbon footing.</p>
<p>If current trends continue, and we go on building high-carbon energy generation, then by 2015 at least 90% of the available &#8220;carbon budget&#8221; will be swallowed up by our energy and industrial infrastructure. By 2017, there will be no room for manoeuvre at all – the whole of the carbon budget will be spoken for, according to the IEA&#8217;s calculations.”</p></blockquote>
<p>A couple of days before the IEA “bombshell” the US department of energy released another gloomy report which showed that global carbon dioxide emissions rose with 6% in 2010, greatly exceeding the worst case scenario outlined by the IPCC. <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2011/11/201111402622633852.html">Al Jazeera English reports</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>“In 2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its last large report on global warming, it used different scenarios for carbon dioxide pollution, and said the rate of warming would be based on the rate of pollution.</p>
<p>Tom Boden (director of the Energy Department&#8217;s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee) said the latest figures put global emissions higher than the worst case projections from the climate panel. Those forecast global temperatures rising between 2.4 and 6.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century with the best estimate at four degrees Celsius.”</p></blockquote>
<p>According to the report the world released around 564 million more tonnes of carbon emissions into the air during the last year compared to previous levels in 2009. The increase in emissions mainly comes from China and the USA which alone stood for more than half of the emissions in 2010. But more and more emissions come from developing countries. &#8220;We really need to get the developing world because if we don&#8217;t, the problem is going to be running away from us,&#8221; climate scientist Andrew Weaver from the University of Victoria said. &#8220;And the problem is pretty close from running away from us.&#8221; But &#8220;the more we talk about the need to control emissions, the more they are growing,&#8221; John Reilly, co-director of MIT&#8217;s Joint Programme on the Science and Policy of Global Change, said.</p>
<p>It’s now clearer than ever. We must start to aggressively change our high-carbon energy systems to more clean and renewable energy sources, <a href="http://www.eaem.co.uk/news/iea-chief-says-scrap-fossil-fuel-subsidies-or-face-catastrophe">scrap our massive fossil fuel subsidies</a> and deploy a myriad of climate policies such as a <a href="http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2011/11/10/cap-trades-failure-means-its-time-carbon-tax">carbon tax</a>. We only have a few remaining years to make a difference until we must face certain and worldwide climate catastrophe. It looks grim, really grim to be honest. But we can’t give up just yet. Let’s put up a good fight. </p>
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		<title>Newsflash: Global Warming Is Real</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/11/07/newsflash-global-warming-is-real/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/11/07/newsflash-global-warming-is-real/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Nov 2011 00:41:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Keenan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Berkeley study]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate refugees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foresight Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Warming Discussion]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/?p=3397</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a recent British report, it is claimed that hundreds of millions of people might find themselves trapped in bad environments due to the effects of global warming. The report was issued by the United Kingdom&#8217;s government committee the Foresight &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/11/07/newsflash-global-warming-is-real/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/oct/20/climate-change-millions-disaster-report">recent British report</a>, it is claimed that hundreds of millions of people might find themselves trapped in bad environments <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming">due to the effects of global warming</a>. The report was issued by the United Kingdom&#8217;s government committee <a href="http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight">the Foresight Group</a>, which is led by Sir John Bennington.</p>
<p>According to Bennington, “Millions will migrate into, rather than away from, areas of environmental vulnerability &#8230; An even bigger policy challenge will be the millions who are trapped in dangerous conditions and unable to move to safety.&#8221; </p>
<p>According to the report <a href="http://bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/current-projects/global-migration/reports-publications">Migration and Global Environmental Change</a>, between 114 million and 192 million people will have moved to urban areas of Asia and Africa by 2060. Despite the environmental changes the earth is going through, scientists explain that there isn&#8217;t reason to panic just yet. “Migration can be a good option. It is a way of adapting to climate change,” explains Neil Adger, who works as a professor of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_economics">environmental economics</a>. “We should be planning for migration pro-actively, to ensure that the necessary infrastructure is in place for people.”</p>
<p><span id="more-3397"></span></p>
<p>The scientists in the Foresight Group have also said that developing countries should be helped now, while there is still time to support them before more drastic changes start taking place in the environment.</p>
<p>In related news, <a href="http://dvice.com/archives/2011/10/independent-ske.php">the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study was recently released</a>, which found that global warming is real. This study is somewhat different from others because it was independently conducted, non-profit (in fact, it had been funded by many skeptics), and open source. Also, the report includes a great amount of data and information results and records concerning the earth&#8217;s temperature that were compiled from more than 39,000 weather stations around the world.</p>
<p>The Berkeley study’s findings corroborated with what other studies had previously found and showed: the earth’s temperatures are indeed getting warmer and warmer each year. Yet despite all of the statistics and facts, <a href="http://green-blog.org/community/index.php?/topic/88-rick-perry-continues-to-deny-global-warming-attacks-climate-scientists/">a number of people still insist that global warming is a myth</a>, that information has been distorted and tampered with, and that all of this is part of an elaborate hoax.</p>
<p>Hopefully as the earth continues to increase in temperature and the environmental repercussions like <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2008/08/13/the-north-pole-could-be-ice-free-in-just-five-years/">the melting of the polar ice caps</a> continue to make themselves evident, <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2010/08/23/global-warming-evidence-is-unmistakable/">skeptics will realize that global warming is indeed real</a> and that <a href="http://houseandgardendiy.com/2011/07/25-tips-to-reduce-your-water-bill/">green living is one way to combat it on an individual level</a>. Then again, some people will likely still be in denial, even when Alaska is hotter than a <a href="http://clevelandgaragedoors.net/">garage door</a> in Guam.</p>
<p>What are your thoughts on the Berkeley and Foresight Group studies? Be sure to let us know, in the comments below!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>How Humanity can act on Moving Planet Day</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/09/24/how-humanity-can-act-on-moving-planet-day/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/09/24/how-humanity-can-act-on-moving-planet-day/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2011 14:01:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr Gideon Polya</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Green Action Tip]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[300 ppm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[350 ppm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[carbon capture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate Genocide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[green action]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Lovelock]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moving Planet Day]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/?p=3295</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Humanity is acutely threatened by man-made global warming but is also substantially disempowered by irresponsible corporate polluters and by Mainstream media and politicians. However 24 September 2011 is “Moving Planet Day” on which hundreds of thousands of people around the &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/09/24/how-humanity-can-act-on-moving-planet-day/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Humanity is acutely threatened by man-made global warming but is also substantially disempowered by irresponsible corporate polluters  and by Mainstream media and politicians. However 24 September 2011 is “Moving Planet Day” on which hundreds of thousands of people around the world will be demanding effective action against man-made climate change. A key sponsor is <a href="http://350.org">350.org</a> which wants atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to be no more than 350 parts per million (ppm).  </p>
<p>300.org, which demands that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) be returned ASAP to 300 parts per million (ppm) from the current 394 ppm (increasing at 2.4 ppm per year), also endorses “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/moving-planet">Moving Planet Day</a>”. According to key sponsor <a href="http://www.350.org/en/media">350.org</a>: </p>
<p><span id="more-3295"></span></p>
<blockquote><p>“On September 24, more than 150 countries are expected to take part in a global day events called “Moving Planet” dedicated to the goal of solving the climate crisis by ending the world’s dependence on fossil-fuel energy. From Pacific islands to European capitols, hundreds of thousands will join creative rallies to show that people around the world are ready for clean energy and climate solutions” (see 350.org press release, “Over 150 countries join “Moving Planet Day” to push for clean energy solutions”.</p></blockquote>
<p>A great bit of news for this 24 September “Moving Planet Day” of climate change action backed by 350.org, 300.org and others around the World: Germany’s upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, has rejected a proposal to start storing the greenhouse gas (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) underground in a bid to reduce emissions (see “<a href="http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20110923-37785.html?utm_source=email&#038;utm_medium=email&#038;utm_content=214">Germany rejects carbon dioxide storage plans</a>”, The Local, 23 September 2011.</p>
<p>A great decision by Germany to prohibit as yet commercially unproven Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The solution to greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is to stop GENERATING GHGs, mainly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and man-made GHGs such as hydrofluoro hydrocarbons (HFCs), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). This can be achieved by 100% renewable energy ASAP coupled with re-afforestation and  biochar production coupled with cessation of population increase, fossil fuel burning, deforestation and methanogenic livestock production (for an up to date, well referenced climate change course summary Google &#8220;<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course">climate change course summary</a>&#8220;).</p>
<p>The need for REAL action on GHG pollution is acute, In 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU; Wissenshaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a 2 degree C temperature rise (EU policy), the World must pollute less than a 600 Gt CO2 &#8220;global GHG pollution budget&#8221; between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050.  Analysis of this country by country reveals that  at current rates of GHG pollution Germany has merely 5.9 years to cease all GHG pollution (i.e. no industry, transport, livestock etc) whereas climate criminal Apartheid Australia, a world leader in annual per capita GHG pollution and fossil fuel exports  has already used up its &#8220;fair share&#8221; of this terminal GHG pollution budget and is now stealing the entitlement of all other countries (e.g. Somalia and Bangladesh) (for details &#8220;<a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/">Shocking analysis by country</a>&#8220;).</p>
<p>The World is running out of time to tackle man-made climate change and dishonest, ineffective approaches such as the CCS, ETS and &#8220;coal to gas transition&#8221; (gas is dirty and can be dirtier than coal GHG-wise) will simply delay requisite climate change action. Supported by 350.org (<a href="http://www.350.org/en/media">back to 350 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere ASAP</a>) and 300.org (<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/moving-planet">back to 300 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere ASAP</a>), on September 24, more than 150 countries are expected to take part in a global day events called “Moving Planet” dedicated to the goal of solving the climate crisis by ending the world’s dependence on fossil-fuel energy.</p>
<p>Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson (Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050 (UN Population Division) , these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including roughly twice the present population of particular mainly non-European groups, specifically 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis (see “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/">Climate genocide</a>”).</p>
<p>What can decent people do? Decent folk who care for their children, their grandchildren and intergenerational equity must (a) inform everyone they can about the worsening climate emergency and (b) urge and apply sanctions against all those people, politicians, corporations and countries complicit in the worsening climate emergency.</p>
<p>We mostly live in the prevalent pseudo-democratic Murdochracies (Big Money buys truth and votes) and Lobbyocracies (Big Money buys politicians and policy). However decent folk can be empowered by a simple ABC protocol that has been highly successful in all kinds of other movements and which people can apply individually and collectively to tackling climate change:</p>
<p><strong>(A) Accountability</strong> – hold corporations, countries, products, politicians and polluters accountable for increasing greenhouse gas pollution;</p>
<p><strong>(B) Badge</strong> &#8211; wear a pro-Planet badge e.g.  bear witness with a “300 ppm CO2” badge to the need to reduce atmospheric CO2 to the level it had not exceeded in the 800,000 years prior to the Industrial Revolution; and</p>
<p><strong>(C) Credo</strong> – transmit a simple, fundamental core statement e.g. “Return atmospheric CO2 to 300 ppm for a safe planet for all peoples and all species”.</p>
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		<title>Jon Huntsman slams Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann on climate change and gas prices</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/23/jon-huntsman-slams-rick-perry-and-michele-bachmann-on-climate-change-and-gas-prices/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/23/jon-huntsman-slams-rick-perry-and-michele-bachmann-on-climate-change-and-gas-prices/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Aug 2011 23:03:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Simon Leufstedt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business & Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2012 Election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate skepticism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[denialism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gas prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Huntsman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michele Bachmann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mitt Romney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Republican Party]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Republican primary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Republicans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Perry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/?p=3229</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A few days ago I wrote about Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, the three front-runners in the Republican primary, and just where they stand politically when it comes to our climate and environment. As one can imagine their &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/23/jon-huntsman-slams-rick-perry-and-michele-bachmann-on-climate-change-and-gas-prices/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A few days ago I wrote about <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/17/mitt-romney-michele-bachmann-and-rick-perry/">Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry</a>, the three front-runners in the Republican primary, and just where they stand politically when it comes to our climate and environment. As one can imagine their anti-science positions and climate skepticism didn&#8217;t result in a very positive environmental record. Now one of the more unknown Republican candidates in the primary have spoken out against his fellow Republican party members for their anti-science rhetoric. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s the former Utah Governor and former Ambassador to China, Jon Huntsman who said in an interview on ABC&#8217;s <em>This Week</em> this past Sunday that the climate change skepticism coming from Romney, Bachmann and Perry is &#8220;not a winning formula&#8221; <a href="http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/08/jon-huntsman-comes-out-swinging.html">saying</a> he &#8220;wouldn&#8217;t necessarily trust any&#8221; of his opponents. </p>
<p><span id="more-3229"></span></p>
<p>Since my post last week the three front-runners have attended more campaign rallies and said more crazy things. For example: At a political rally in New Hampshire last week, <a href="http://green-blog.org/community/index.php/topic/88-rick-perry-continues-to-deny-global-warming-attacks-climate-scientists/">Rick Perry continued to deny global warming</a> and said that “there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects”. Michele Bachmann on the other hand said at a rally in South Carolina that she will make sure that gasoline cost less than $2 a gallon again, if she becomes president. This is of course impossible and Stephen Lacey has a great post about this crazy dream from Bachmann <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/08/18/298283/bachmann-gas-prices-below-2-a-gallon/">over at Climate Progress</a>.</p>
<p>During the interview on ABC&#8217;s This Week, Hunstman attacked Romney, Bachmann and Perry and said that the Republican party will be on the &#8220;losing side&#8221; if they continue to attack science.  Here is an excerpt from Huntsman&#8217;s interview where he attacks mainly Perry&#8217;s stance on global warming, evolution and science:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I think there&#8217;s a serious problem. The minute that the Republican Party becomes the party &#8211; the anti-science party, we have a huge problem. We lose a whole lot of people who would otherwise allow us to win the election in 2012.  When we take a position that isn&#8217;t willing to embrace evolution, when we take a position that basically runs counter to what 98 of 100 climate scientists have said, what the National Academy of Science &#8211; Sciences has said about what is causing climate change and man&#8217;s contribution to it, I think we find ourselves on the wrong side of science, and, therefore, in a losing position.</p>
<p>The Republican Party has to remember that we&#8217;re drawing from traditions that go back as far as Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, President Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and Bush.  And we&#8217;ve got a lot of traditions to draw upon.  But I can&#8217;t remember a time in our history where we actually were willing to shun science and become a &#8211; a party that &#8211; that was antithetical to science. I&#8217;m not sure that&#8217;s good for our future and it&#8217;s not a winning formula.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>He also attacked Bachmann&#8217;s $2 gasoline promise:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I just don’t know what — what world that comment would come from, you know? We live in the real world. It’s grounded in reality. And gas prices just aren’t going to rebound like that.</p>
<p>But just as we are in a static world, that is completely unrealistic. And, again, it’s talking about things that, you know, may pander to a particular group or sound good at the time, but it just simply is not founded in reality.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Hopefully Huntsman can bring some sanity when it comes to science and climate change to the Republican primary and the coming presidential election. You can <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jon-huntsman-swinging-gop-rivals/story?id=14349989">watch the full interview with Huntsman here</a>.</p>
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		<title>Carbon emissions sees record rise despite economic recession</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/06/02/carbon-emissions-sees-record-rise-despite-economic-recession/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/06/02/carbon-emissions-sees-record-rise-despite-economic-recession/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jun 2011 21:02:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Simon Leufstedt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[carbon emissions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economic Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatih Birol]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fossil fuels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[greenhouse gas emissions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Sauven]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicholas Stern]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/2011/06/02/carbon-emissions-sees-record-rise-despite-economic-recession/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to an unpublished report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) global greenhouse gas emissions has increased to new record levels. And this despite one of the worst economic recessions in recent history which analysts thought would lower the carbon &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/06/02/carbon-emissions-sees-record-rise-despite-economic-recession/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to an unpublished report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) global greenhouse gas emissions has increased to new record levels. And this despite one of the worst economic recessions in recent history which analysts thought would lower the carbon emission levels from last year.</p>
<p>Analysts from IEA says the extreme rise in greenhouse gas emissions will make it impossible to reach the 2 degrees target that politicians have claimed is the threshold we should aim for to prevent dangerous runaway climate change. Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA, says that if the current rise in carbon emissions continues the 2 degrees target will just become &quot;a nice Utopia&quot;.</p>
<p><span id="more-2862"></span><br />
<blockquote>
<p>&quot;I am very worried. This is the worst news on emissions,&quot; Birol told <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower">the Guardian</a>. &quot;It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below 2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say.&quot;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The British top climate economist Nicholas Stern, who <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2009/09/12/nicholas-stern-endorses-350-ppm-as-a-very-sensible-long-term-target/">recently endorsed</a> the <a href="http://www.350.org/en/about/science">350 ppm target</a>, said in a response to the new shocking figures that we could see &quot;widespread mass migration and conflict&quot; as a result:</p>
<blockquote><p>&quot;These figures indicate that [emissions] are now close to being back on a &#8216;business as usual&#8217; path. According to the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's] projections, such a path &#8230; would mean around a 50% chance of a rise in global average temperature of more than 4C by 2100.</p>
<p>Such warming would disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people across the planet, leading to widespread mass migration and conflict. That is a risk any sane person would seek to drastically reduce.&quot;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>John Sauven, the executive director of Greenpeace UK, warned that time is now seriously running out for us:</p>
<blockquote><p>&quot;This news should shock the world. Yet even now politicians in each of the great powers are eyeing up extraordinary and risky ways to extract the world&#8217;s last remaining reserves of fossil fuels – even from under the melting ice of the Arctic. You don&#8217;t put out a fire with gasoline. It will now be up to us to stop them.&quot;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And just two days ago <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/31/carbon-levels-peak">preliminary data</a> from the US government&#8217;s Earth Systems Research Laboratory was released showing that carbon dioxide levels peaked at the highest levels on record last week. The data show that &quot;2011 CO2 levels peaked last week at 394.97ppm. This is an increase of nearly 1.6ppm on last year and the highest ever recorded&quot;.</p>
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		<title>It will take Earth 100,000 years to recover from global warming</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2010/11/07/it-will-take-earth-100000-years-to-recover-from-global-warming/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2010/11/07/it-will-take-earth-100000-years-to-recover-from-global-warming/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Nov 2010 20:16:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Simon Leufstedt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geological Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geologist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Zachos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/2010/11/07/it-will-take-earth-100000-years-to-recover-from-global-warming/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A scientific conference, organized by the Geological Society in London, was held earlier this week to discuss and look on how Earth coped with climate change in the past. Yes, the climate has changed before. And no, that doesn&#8217;t disprove &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2010/11/07/it-will-take-earth-100000-years-to-recover-from-global-warming/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A scientific conference, organized by the Geological Society in London, was held earlier this week to discuss and look on how Earth coped with climate change in the past. Yes, the climate has changed before. And no, that <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period-basic.htm">doesn&#8217;t disprove anything</a>.</p>
<p>During the conference the Geological Society in London warned in a statement that in the absence of mitigation measures it could take Earth 100,000 years or more to recover:</p>
<blockquote><p>“The geological evidence from the 55 million year event and from earlier warming episodes suggests that such an addition [a massive increase in greenhouse gases caused by the activities of mankind] is likely to raise average global temperatures by at least 5 to 6C, and possibly more, and that recovery of the Earth’s climate in the absence of mitigation measures could take 100,000 years or more. Numerical models of the climate system support such an interpretation. In the light of the evidence presented here it is reasonable to conclude that emitting further large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over time is likely to be unwise, uncomfortable though that fact may be.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Professor Jim Zachos, from the University of California, said that if we humans continue to pump out greenhouse gases into the atmosphere we could cause &#8220;mass extinction of species&#8221;:</p>
<p><span id="more-2486"></span></p>
<blockquote><p>“Prof Zachos said that if the world continues to pump out greenhouse gases at the current rate, around 5,000 gigatons of greenhouse gases will be released into the atmosphere over a few hundred years.</p>
<p>He said this will cause a more rapid temperature rise that at any other time in history and could cause “mass extinction of species”.</p>
<p>“The impacts will be pretty severe compared to 55 million years ago in terms of evolution of this planet,” he said.”</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8102821/Earth-will-take-100000-years-to-recover-from-global-warming-say-geologists.html">Read more about this story over at the Telegraph</a>. Also check out this Green Blog post: <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2009/01/30/shock-noaa-study-shows-climate-change-largely-irreversible-for-1000-years/">NOAA study shows climate change “largely irreversible for 1000 years”</a></p>
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		<title>2010 might be the hottest year ever recorded in human history</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2010/07/11/2010-might-be-the-hottest-year-ever-recorded-in-human-history/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2010/07/11/2010-might-be-the-hottest-year-ever-recorded-in-human-history/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jul 2010 19:50:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Simon Leufstedt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2010]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arctic sea ice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global temperature]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[heatwave]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iraq]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Hansen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kuwait]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[La Nina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Myanmar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NASA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Niger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NSIDC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pakistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[science]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Climate institutions and scientists are warning that 2010 might end up as one of the hottest years ever recorded in human history. According to new data from the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC)arctic sea ice levels &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2010/07/11/2010-might-be-the-hottest-year-ever-recorded-in-human-history/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Climate institutions and scientists are warning that 2010 might end up as one of the hottest years ever recorded in human history. According to new data from the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC)arctic sea ice levels is now &quot;at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year&quot;. According to the reports this year will break the previous record low levels from 2007. <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/02/2010-could-be-warmest-year-ever">The Guardian reports</a> that:</p>
<blockquote><p>&quot;Satellite monitoring by the NSIDC in Boulder, Colorado, shows that the melting of sea ice has been unusually fast this year, with as much as 40,000 sq km now disappearing daily.</p>
<p>The melt season started almost a month later than normal at the end of March and is not expected to end until September.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, research from the polar science centre at the University of Washington suggests that the volume of sea ice in March 2010 was 20,300 cubic km, 38% below the 1979 level when records began.&quot;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>  <span id="more-2318"></span>
<p>And according to James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and one of the world&#8217;s most prominent climate scientist, new data also shows that the global surface temperatures may also be at record levels. According to a newly released paper by Hansen and his colleagues the temperature on Earth has for the past 12 months been 0.65C warmer than previous global temperatures from 1951 to 1980. The paper also shows that the global temperature this year will break the previous record from 2005.</p>
<blockquote><p>&quot;It is likely that the 2010 global surface temperature &#8230; will be a record&quot;, Hansen writes.</p>
<p>&quot;Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up &#8230; we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s.&quot;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Guardian article has written about <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/02/2010-could-be-warmest-year-ever">more findings</a> so be sure to check that article out. Especially worth noting is the new data which shows that January to April this year has been the hottest on record so far. <a href="http://climateprogress.org/2010/06/10/nasa-hottest-spring-on-record/">Climate Progress writes</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>&quot;Last month tied May 1998 as the hottest on record in the NASA dataset. More significantly, following fast on the heels of easily the hottest April — and hottest Jan-April — on record, it’s also the hottest Jan-May on record.</p>
<p>Also, the combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomaly for March-April-May was 0.73°C above the 1951-1980 mean, blowing out the old record of 0.65°C set in 2002.&quot;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And the temperature records continues! New data also shows that <a href="http://climateprogress.org/2010/07/10/nasa-hottest-year-solar-minimum/">the temperature during January-June this year has been the hottest ever recorded</a> by NASA.</p>
<blockquote><p>&quot;It’s all the more powerful evidence of human-caused warming “because it occurs when the recent minimum of solar irradiance is having its maximum cooling effect,” as a recent NASA paper notes.&quot;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But La Nina conditions might build up during July and August which might reduce the average heat temperature for 2010.</p>
<p>Meteorologist Jeff Masters also notes that <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1519">new temperature records have been reached</a> in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Niger, Pakistan and Myanmar. Masters writes: </p>
<blockquote><p>&quot;We’ve now had eight countries in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. This includes Asia’s hottest temperature of all-time, the astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) mark set on May 26 in Pakistan…. This week’s heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.&quot;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Also read:&#160; <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/30/india-heatwave-deaths">Hundreds die in Indian heatwave</a> &#8211; Death toll expected to rise as India faces record temperatures of up to 122F in hottest summer on record</p>
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