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	<title>Green Blog &#187; climate racist</title>
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		<title>Shocking analysis by country of years left to zero emissions</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 11:14:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr Gideon Polya</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2050]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boycotts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate Genocide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate justice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate Racism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate racist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fossil fuels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GHG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[greenhouse gas emissions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/?p=3104</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We all know that we have to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and eventually reach zero emissions. Indeed top climate scientists and biologists are telling us that reaching zero emissions is not enough – we then have to reduce atmospheric &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2011/08/01/shocking-analysis-by-country-of-years-left-to-zero-emissions/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We all know that we have to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and eventually reach zero emissions. Indeed top climate scientists and biologists  are telling us that reaching zero emissions is not enough – we then have to reduce atmospheric  carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration from the current 394 parts per million (ppm) to 350 ppm (according to <a href="http://350.org/">350.org</a>) and thence to 300 ppm (<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm">according to the latest science-informed 300.org</a>). Because of extraordinary Mainstream media censorship in Lobbyocracy Australia, few Australians realize that Australia has already exceeded its “fair share” of permissible global GHG pollution before science-demanded zero emissions in 2050. </p>
<p><span id="more-3104"></span></p>
<div class="quote1">&#8220;Australia is committed to a greedy and inhumane course of climate exceptionalism, climate racism and climate injustice.&#8221;</div>
<p> In 2009 the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU) determined that for a 75% chance of avoiding a 2 degree C temperature rise, the World must pollute less than 600 Gt CO2 between 2010 and essentially zero emissions in 2050. Unfortunately Australia (through disproportionately huge annual fossil fuel burning and exports) and Belize (through disproportionately huge annual deforestation) have already used up their “share” of this terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. The analysis below will tell you how many years your country has left before it exceeds its “fair share” of atmospheric GHG pollution.</p>
<p>The 2009 Report of the German Advisory Council on Climate Change (WBGU, Wissenshaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen) was entitled “Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach” and crucially  stated: “The budget of CO2 emissions still available worldwide could be derived from the 2 degree C guard rail. By the middle of the 21st century a maximum of approximately 750 Gt CO2 (billion metric tons) may be released into the Earth’s atmosphere if the guard rail is to be adhered to with a probability of 67%. If we raise the probability to 75%, the cumulative emissions within this period would even have to remain below 600 Gt CO2. In any case, only a small amount of CO2 may be emitted worldwide after 2050. Thus, the era of an economy driven by fossil fuels will definitely have to come to an end within the first half of this century” (see WBGU, “<a href="http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/sondergutachten/sn2009/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf">Solving the climate dilemma: the budget approach</a>”).  </p>
<p>The consequences of this declaration of less than 600 Gt CO2 in emissions for a 75% chance of avoiding 2 degree C temperature rise are profound. Thus, would you board a plane if it had a 25% chance of crashing? Further, the average world population in the period 2010 and 2050 will be 8.321 billion (see <a href="http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm">UN Population Division, 2010 Revision</a>). Accordingly the per capita share of this terminal CO2 pollution budget is less than 600 billion tonnes CO2/8.321 people = less than 72.1 tonnes CO2 per person.</p>
<p>Using data for the annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) (including land use change) for every country in the world in 2000 (see “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita">List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita</a>”, Wikipedia) one can determine how many years left at current rates of GHG pollution (in units of CO2-e or CO2-equivalent i.e. taking other GHGs into account) before a given country uses up its “share”. Thus for Australia  72.1 tonnes CO2-e per person / 25.9 tonnes CO2- per person per year in 2000 = 2.8 years left, based on the 2000 data. Note that this analysis does not take into account historical pollution of the atmosphere.</p>
<p>In  2009 Australia’s population was 22.0 million,   Australia &#8216;s GHG pollution was 600 Mt CO2-e (CO2 equivalent i.e. taking into account other greenhouse gases such as methane, CH4, and nitrous oxide, N2O). 600 Mt per year/ 22.0 million people = 27.3 t CO2-e per person per year and at that rate of GHG pollution Australia would use up its 2010-2050 “share” in 72.1 t CO2-e per person/ 27.3 t CO2-e per person per year = 2.6 years.  </p>
<p>However in 2009 Australia&#8217;s Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution (in Mt CO2-e) was  600 (Domestic) +  784 (coal exports) + 31 (LNG exports) = 1,415 Mt CO2-e, this giving Australia an annual per capita Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution in 2009 of 1,415 Mt CO2-e per year/ 22.0 million people = 64.3 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, this being 64.3/0.9 = 71.4 times greater than the annual per capita of Bangladesh (0.9 tonnes CO2-e per person per year).  Based on its 2009 Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution rate, Australia will take 72.1 Mt CO2-e per person/ 64.3 t CO2-e per person per year = 1.1 years in the period 2010-2050 to use up its “fair share” of the terminal 600 Gt CO2-e carbon pollution budget i.e. Australia has ALREADY used up its “share” of the terminal greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution budget. </p>
<p>Of course there is no way that Australia will meet its “all men are created equal” global obligations and cease polluting after having already in July 2011 achieved its “fair share” of the terminal 600 Gt CO2 global GHG pollution “budget”. Australia is fundamentally committed to coal and gas use and exports. Thus about 92% of Australia &#8216;s electricity derives from fossil fuel combustion, Australia is the world&#8217;s biggest coal exporter and Australia is a major liquid natural gas (LNG) exporter. The only major change adumbrated by the Gillard Labor Government is a coal to gas transition for electric power generation, this ignoring the reality that this will mean a doubling of greenhouse gas generation from the electricity sector because methane (CH4) is 85% of natural gas, leaks at about 3.3% and is 105 times worse than CO2 as a greenhouse gas on a 20 year timeframe and taking aerosol impacts into account.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has projected that Australia&#8217;s black coal exports will increase at an average rate of 2.6% per year over the next 20 years and that liquid natural gas (LNG) exports will increase at 9% per year over the same period (see “<a href="http://www.investinaustralia.com/industry/mining/why-invest-australian-mining-sector">Invest in Australia</a>”). Further, it is estimated that Australian exports of dried brown coal will reach 20 Mt by 2020, this corresponding to about 59 Mt CO2-e after combustion.</p>
<p>Accordingly,  by 2020 and based on Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition and Labor Government (aka Lib-Lab)  promises of “5% off Domestic GHG pollution by 2020” and ABARE projections (see ABARE, “<a href="http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/energy_dec06/htm/summary.htm">Australian energy: national and state projections to 2029-30</a>”), Australian Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution will be 621 Mt CO2-e (Domestic) (Australian Government, Treasury, “<a href="http://cache.treasury.gov.au/treasury/carbonpricemodelling/content/report/downloads/Modelling_Report_Consolidated.pdf?v=1">Strong Growth, Low Pollution. Modelling a Carbon Price</a>”, 2011) +  1.326 x 784 =1,039 Mt CO2-e (coal exports) + 2.580 x 31 = 80 Mt CO2-e (LNG exports) + 59 Mt CO2-e (brown coal exports)  = 1,799 Mt CO2-e  i.e. 127% of that in 2009 (see “<a href="http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article20957">Analysis: Australian Labor Government Carbon Price-ETS scheme fails &#038; entrenches climate change inaction</a>”, Bellaciao, 16 July 2010).</p>
<p>Thus Australian policy flies in the face of science and “all men are created equal” which show that Australia has ALREADY used up it share of the 2010-2050 terminal GHG pollution budget. Instead Australia officially projects to INCREASE its annual pollution by 2020 by about 27% over that in 2009. How does Australia &#8216;s refusal to DECREASE its disproportionate GHG pollution compare with the conduct of other countries? Set out below is the time (at 2000 pollution rates) for every country in the World to use up its “fair share” of the World’s 600 Gt CO2 terminal GHG pollution  budget. </p>
<p>Years to the  required “fair shares” total cessation of GHG pollution at current rates of pollution = 72.1 tonnes CO2-e per person/ (tonnes  CO2-e per person per year). The annual per capita GHG pollution for each country in 2000 with the land use contribution included (tonnes CO2-e per person per year) was used (the available data for Uruguay was the 2005 per capita data without the land use contribution included). It should be noted that  fossil fuel use, livestock production  and deforestation variously contribute to annual per capita GHG pollution. Of course if you can access more up-to-date data (e.g. the example of Australia) and then you can use it to determine an updated time for zero emissions. Note that this analysis does not take into account historical industrial pollution of the atmosphere (73% due to European countries) (see 2008 <a href="http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf">Letter of Dr James Hansen, NASA GISS, to PM Kevin Rudd of Australia</a>).</p>
<h3>Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 5 years.</h3>
<p>Belize (0.8 years), Qatar (1.3), Guyana (1.4), Malaysia (1.9), United Arab Emirates (2.0), Kuwait (2.4),  Papua New Guinea (2.5), Brunei (2.8), Australia (2.8; 1.1 if including its huge GHG Exports),  Antigua &#038; Barbuda (2.8), Zambia (2.9), Canada (3.0), Bahrain (3.0), United States (3.1), Trinidad &#038; Tobago (3.3), Luxembourg (3.4), Panama (3.7), New Zealand (3.7),  Estonia (4.0),  Botswana (4.1), Ireland (4.3),  Saudi Arabia (4.4),  Venezuela (4.6),  Indonesia (4.8),  Equatorial Guinea (5.0), Belgium (5.0). </p>
<h3>Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 5-10 years.</h3>
<p>Turkmenistan (5.1 years ), Singapore (5.1),  Czech Republic (5.2), Liberia (5.2), Netherlands (5.3), Russia (5.3),  Nicaragua (5.4), Finland (5.5),  Oman (5.6), Palau (5.6), Brazil (5.6),  Uruguay (5.7), Denmark (5.8). Germany (5.9),  Mongolia (6.1),  Israel (6.1),  Nauru (6.2), Norway (6.3),  South Korea (6.5),  Kazakhstan (6.6), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (6.6),  Libya (6.7), Greece (6.7),  Japan (6.7),  Myanmar (6.7),  Taiwan (6.8),  Cyprus (7.0), Slovenia (7.1),  Cambodia (7.1),  Austria (7.2),  Iceland (7.2),  Peru (7.3), Paraguay (7.3), Ukraine (7.4), Poland (7.5),  South Africa (7.6),  Argentina (7.8),  Slovakia (7.8),  Spain (7.8), Italy (7.8), Central African Republic (8.0), France (8.3), Suriname (8.4), Belarus (8.4),  Gabon (8.6), Ecuador (8.8),  Bolivia (8.9), Cameroon (9.5), Iran (9.5),  Côte d&#8217;Ivoire (9.6), Sweden (9.6),  Seychelles (9.7), Guatemala (9.7), Bulgaria (9.7),  Serbia &#038; Montenegro (9.7), Hungary (9.7), Congo, Democratic Republic (formerly Zaire) (9.7),  Uzbekistan (9.9), Portugal (10.0). </p>
<h3>Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 10-20 years.</h3>
<p>Switzerland (10.2 years),  Azerbaijan (10.6),  Angola (10.8), Bahamas (10.9), Benin (11.1), Zimbabwe (11.1), Laos (11.3),  Mexico (11.3),  Nepal (11.4),  Colombia (11.4),  Namibia (11.4), Chile (11.4),   Malta (11.8), Congo, Republic (12.0),  Madagascar (12.0), Croatia (12.2), Jamaica (12.2), Macedonia (12.4), Barbados (12.4), Latvia (12.6),  Mauritania (12.9),  Turkey (12.9),  Romania (13.1),  Lithuania (13.4),  Costa Rica (13.4), Lebanon (13.6),  North Korea (13.9),  Thailand (14.1),  Jordan (14.7), Honduras (15.3),  Sudan (15.7), Bosnia &#038; Herzegovina (16.0), Algeria (17.2),  Iraq (17.2),  Sierra Leone (17.2), Syria (18.0), China (18.5),  Tunisia (19.5), Dominican Republic (20.6 years). </p>
<h3>Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 20-30 years.</h3>
<p>St Kitts &#038; Nevis (21.8), Nigeria (21.8),  Fiji (21.8), Guinea (22.5), Mauritius (22.5), Cuba (23.3), Togo (23.3), Vanuatu (24.0), Philippines (24.0), Malawi (24.0), Mali (24.9), Chad (24.9), Sri Lanka (25.8), Uganda (26.7),  Dominica (26.7), St Lucia (26.7), Egypt (27.7),  Niue (27.7), Ghana (27.7), Moldova (28.8), Grenada (28.8), El Salvador (30.0), Guinea-Bissau (30.0), Tanzania (30.0), Djibouti (30.0).</p>
<h3>Countries that must cease GHG pollution within 30-50 years.</h3>
<p>Pakistan (31.3 years),  Samoa (31.3), Tonga (31.3), Morocco (32.8), Senegal (32.8),  Albania (32.8),  Georgia (32.8), Armenia (34.3), St Vincent &#038; Grenadines (36.1), Kenya (36.1), Maldives (37.9), Kyrgyzstan (37.9),  Burkina Faso (37.9), India (40.1),  Cook Islands (40.1), Bhutan (42.4), Yemen (45.1), Tajikistan (45.1), Mozambique (45.1), Rwanda (45.1), Burundi (45.1), Lesotho (48.1), Swaziland (48.1).</p>
<h3>Countries that must cease GHG pollution within about 50-120 years.</h3>
<p>Eritrea (51.5), Haiti (51.5), Solomon Islands (65.5), Vietnam (65.5),  Cape Verde (65.5), Niger (65.5), Ethiopia (65.5),  São Tomé and Príncipe (72.1), Afghanistan (80.1), The Gambia (80.1), Bangladesh (80.1),  Comoros (103.0), Kiribati (120.2).</p>
<p>I must reiterate that there is no way that Australia will meet its global “fair shares” obligations because it is fundamentally committed to oil use and to coal and gas use and exports. Thus about 92% of Australia&#8217;s electricity derives from fossil fuel combustion, Australia is the world&#8217;s biggest coal exporter and a major liquid natural gas (LNG) exporter. Both the major parties, the Liberal –National Party Coalition Opposition (the Libs) and the Labor Government (the Labs) (collectively known as the Lib-Labs) are committed to a derisory policy of 5% off 2000 Domestic GHG pollution by 2020 but with greed-driven growth of coal and LNG Exports (at 2.6% pa and 9% pa, respectively). Australia is committed to a greedy and inhumane course of climate exceptionalism, climate racism and climate injustice. Having ALREADY used up its share of the terminal 600 Gt CO2-e budget, climate criminal Australia is now greedily and disproportionately using up the quotas of other countries (climate racism), with serious global implications as set out below. . </p>
<p>Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, these estimates translate to a Climate Genocide involving deaths of about 10 billion people this century, mostly non-Europeans,  this including about 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. Already 18 million people die avoidably every year in Developing countries (minus China) due to deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease and man-made global warming is already clearly worsening this global avoidable mortality holocaust. However 10 billion avoidable deaths due to global warming this century will yield an average global annual avoidable death rate of 100 million per year (see “<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/">Climate Genocide</a>”).  </p>
<p>Where does your country come in this “years left until zero emissions” analysis? The World is badly running out of time. The World will have to take action against the more notorious climate criminal and climate racist countries such  as  Australia through Sanctions, Boycotts, Sporting Boycotts (as were successfully applied to Apartheid South Africa through exclusion from the Olympic Games and other events), Green Tariffs, International Court of Justice litigations and International Criminal Court prosecutions.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Climate Racist White Australia threatens Developing World with Climate Genocide</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2009/09/01/climate-racist-white-australia-threatens-developing-world-with-climate-genocide/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2009/09/01/climate-racist-white-australia-threatens-developing-world-with-climate-genocide/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 17:57:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr Gideon Polya</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aboriginal Genocide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cambodia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate Genocide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[climate racist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[developed countries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[developing countries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[developing world]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Imperialism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indonesia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iraq]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iraqi Genocide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Laos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Malaysia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pakistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Palestine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Palestinian Genocide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US imperialism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vietnam]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.green-blog.org/?p=1819</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;Pro-coal, pro-pollution Australia is essentially committed to business-as–usual (BAU) in the face of the climate emergency and to maintaining its world-leading per capita GHG pollution position.&#8221; Australia has had a notorious history of imposing invasion, occupation, holocaust and genocide on &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2009/09/01/climate-racist-white-australia-threatens-developing-world-with-climate-genocide/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="quote1">&#8220;Pro-coal, pro-pollution Australia is essentially committed to business-as–usual (BAU) in the face of the climate emergency and to maintaining its world-leading per capita GHG pollution position.&#8221;</div>
<p> Australia has had a notorious history of imposing invasion, occupation, holocaust and genocide on Indigenous peoples that continues to this day. However with the support of 90% of the Australian people, successive pro-coal Australian Governments have effectively committed to inaction on its world leading per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution and hence to Climate Genocide of the Developing World.</p>
<p>White Australia has an appalling secret genocide history that falls into 3 phases, specifically:</p>
<p>(1) 1788-1901, as a genocidal British colony involved in the Aboriginal Genocide (in which the Indigenous or Aboriginal population fell from 1 million to 0.1 million) and in genocidal British colonial atrocities (notably in the Sudan, India, South Africa, China, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands);</p>
<p>(2) 1901-2001,  as a UK- and then US-linked  independent nation involved in continuing Aboriginal Genocide (by occasional massacres, deprivation, social exclusion and forced removal of Indigenous children from their mothers) and with genocidal, civilian targetting, UK and US imperial atrocities in Europe and in nearly every Asian country &#8211; Australia participated in WW1 (invading or bombing numerous countries) , invasion of Russia, WW2 (invading or bombing numerous countries), and military actions against Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Iraq ); and</p>
<p><span id="more-1819"></span></p>
<p>(3) 2001- the present, in continuing the Aboriginal Genocide (9,000 excess Indigenous deaths annually) and  as a lackey of US imperialism involved militarily in the ongoing Iraqi Genocide (post-invasion violent and non-violent excess deaths 2.3 million, 5-6 million refugees) and ongoing Afghan Genocide (post-invasion violent and non-violent excess deaths 3-7 million, 3-4 million refugees with a further  2.5 million Pashtun refugees from US robot-bombed NW Pakistan); and diplomatic legislative and financial involvement in the ongoing Palestinian Genocide by racist Zionist-run Apartheid Israel (post-invasion excess deaths 0.3 million, 7 million refugees). [1].</p>
<p>White Australia has participated in all post-1950 US Asian wars that have been associated (so far) with 25 million violent excess deaths (from bombs and bullets) or non-violent excess deaths (from deprivation). However this carnage is dwarfed by the mostly non-violent excess deaths (avoidable deaths) associated with First World hegemony. Excess deaths for a country in a given period is the difference between actual deaths and the deaths expected for a peaceful, decently governed country with the same demographics. Using UN Population Division demographic data it has been estimated that post-1950 excess deaths (avoidable deaths, deaths that did not have to happen) total 1.3 billion (the World), 1.2 billion (the non-European World) and 0.6 billion (the Muslim World) – with  the latter  representing a Muslim Holocaust 100 times greater than the WW2 Jewish Holocaust (5-6 million killed) or the “forgotten” WW2 Bengali Holocaust, the man-made Bengal Famine in which Churchill deliberately starved 6-7 million Indians to death. [2].</p>
<p>As a minor but nevertheless important player in post-war Anglo-American imperialism, White Australia has a major complicity in the 1.3 billion-victim post-1950 Global Avoidable Mortality Holocaust. However it gets worse &#8211; White Australia (aka Apartheid Australia because of its draconian race-based laws against Indigenous Australians and its diplomatic, legislative and financial support for Apartheid Israel’s ongoing Palestinian Genocide) is a world leader in worsening Climate Genocide. White Australia is the leader in First World commitment to steadily increasing ecocidal, terracidal, greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution that will very likely result in Climate Genocide of 10 billion non-Europeans this century due to unaddressed climate change, this including 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims, 2 billion Indians, 0.3 billion Bangladeshis and 0.3 billion Pakistanis. [3].</p>
<p>White Australia is committed to a climate criminal policy of “60% reduction in 2000 GHG pollution by 2050” – in marked contrast to the urging of top climate scientists and analysts for “cut carbon emissions 80% by 2020”. [4-6].</p>
<p>Importantly, Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter and 92% of its electric power comes from burning fossil fuels.  The climate criminal policies of the present pro-war, pro-coal Labor Party Government are essentially consonant with the policies of the pro-war, pro-coal Liberal Party-National Party Coalition (the Nationals being the most troglodytic and Luddite of the three). These extreme right wing parties are collectively known as the Lib-Labs and command about 90% electoral support, with a minority of 10% of Australian voters supporting the anti-war, anti-coal, pro-peace, pro-environment Australians Greens.  </p>
<p>Already Australia is a world-leading per capita GHG polluter. As of 2008, “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 2.2 (India), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included.  [5, 7].</p>
<p>Reducing Australia’s 2000 Domestic emissions 60% by 2020 would mean 2050 domestic emissions of 0.6 x 535.3 million tonnes CO2-e (CO2-equiv; GHG pollution including CO2, methane and nitrous oxide (N2O) and expressed in terms of CO2 equivalents) = 321.2 Mt CO2-e (million tonnes CO2-e).  However Australia’s projected Exported GHG pollution in 2050 will be 1,318.2 t CO2-e (tonnes CO2-e). According to the UN Population Division Australia’s projected population in 2050 will be 28.0 million. [5].</p>
<p>Accordingly, the Australian Government projection is for a 2050  annual per capita Domestic GHG pollution of 321.2 MtCO2-e/28 million people = 11.5 tonnes CO2-e per person per year &#8211; roughly 2 times the current value for China, 5 times that of India, 8 times that of Pakistan and 13 times that of Bangladesh.</p>
<p>However Australia’s projected Domestic plus Exported GHG pollution in 2050 will be (321.2 + 1,318.2) Mt CO2–e/28 million people = 58.6 tonnes CO2-e per person per year, 8.5% greater than its current values and 9 times the present annual per capita GHG pollution for the World, 10 times that of China, 27 times that of India, 39 times that of Pakistan and 65 times that of Bangladesh.</p>
<p>Pro-coal, pro-pollution Australia is essentially committed to business-as–usual (BAU) in the face of the climate emergency and to maintaining its world-leading per capita GHG pollution position. In stark contrast, after the 2009 G8 meeting, the Indian PM Manmohan Singh pledged that India’s per capita CO2 emissions (already one of the World’s lowest) will never exceed the average for  Developing Countries. [8-9].</p>
<p>It gets worse.  The White Australian Rudd Labor Government has instructed its Treasury officials to model for a “target” concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at between 450 and 550 parts per million CO2-equivalent  (i.e. including the GHGs carbon dioxide, CO2, methane, CH4, and nitrous oxide, N2O), this corresponding to about 390-480 ppm CO2 (with atmospheric CO2 concentration currently increasing at 2 ppm per year). [3, 10].</p>
<p>The Rudd Labor Australian Government pledge of 450-550 CO2-e means a minimum atmospheric CO2 concentration of over 400 ppm CO2 within 5 years with this rising to about 500 ppm CO2.</p>
<p>According to Australian Greens Senator Milne: </p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;450 ppm [CO2-e] gives us a less than even chance of avoiding 2 degrees warming, leading most likely to the complete loss of Arctic summer ice, extinction of polar bears and so many other species in the wild, and potentially setting in train positive feedback loops that could send our climate into an uncontrollable heating cycle.550 ppm [CO2-e] will send us toward 3 degrees warming, destroy the Great Barrier Reef and almost certainly trigger runaway climate change, leading some to say that there is no such thing as stabilisation at 550 ppm. It should not even be being modelled as it is beyond the point where a safe climate for all living creatures, including humanity, can be imagined.” [10].</p></blockquote>
<p>What do leading scientists say about these White Australia-proposed levels of CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere?</p>
<p>According to Australian National University paleoclimate and earth scientist Dr Andrew Glikson: </p>
<blockquote><p>“The continuing use of the atmosphere as an open sewer for industrial pollution has already added some 305 GtC to the atmosphere together with land clearing and animal-emitted methane. This raised CO2 levels to 387 ppm CO2 to date, leading toward conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene), when CO2 levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3 degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres.” [11].</p></blockquote>
<p>According to top US climate scientist Dr James Hansen and colleagues (2008): </p>
<blockquote><p>“Stabilization of Arctic sea ice cover requires, to first approximation, restoration of planetary energy balance. Climate models driven by known forcings yield a present planetary energy imbalance of +0.5-1 W/m2. Observed heat increase in the upper 700 m of the ocean confirms the planetary energy imbalance, but observations of the entire ocean are needed for quantification. CO2 amount must be reduced to 325-355 ppm to increase outgoing flux 0.5-1 W/m2, if other forcings are unchanged. A further imbalance reduction, and thus CO2 ~300-325 ppm, may be needed to restore sea ice to its area of 25 years ago.”  [12].</p></blockquote>
<p>Top UK climate scientist Dr James Lovelock FRS has stated the following of the consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration of over 500 ppm: </p>
<blockquote><p>“In Chapter 1  I describe a simple model where the sensitive part of the Earth system is the ocean; as it warms, so the area of the sea that can support the growth of algae grows smaller as it is driven ever closer to the poles, until algal growth ceases. The discontinuity comes because algae in the ocean both pump down carbon dioxide [by photosynthesis] and produce clouds [through cloud-seeding dimethyl sulphide production]. (Algae floating in the ocean actively remove carbon dioxide from the air and use it for growth; we call the process “pumping down” to distinguish it from the passive and reversible removal of carbon dioxide as it dissolves in rain or sea water). The threshold for the failure of the algae is about 500 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide, about the same as it is for Greenland’s unstoppable melting.” [13].</p></blockquote>
<p>Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (a top world expert on climate change and coral, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia), re 450 ppm CO2, 2007: </p>
<blockquote><p>“What we find out is that the threat is much closer than we thought in the past, and in fact the magic number may be 450. When I say &#8217;450&#8242;; 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide and we lose them … Lose coral reefs. If you look around Australia today, in fact the world, you find that coral reefs only prosper when you&#8217;ve got a certain amount of carbonate ions in the water. The level at which the carbonate ion drops below that level is when you&#8217;ve got 450 parts per million, and of course we know that we haven&#8217;t actually had that concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for possibly 20 million years, so this does make sense. So once we&#8217;ve identified this number, I get the feeling that our politicians, even with their best intentions in Bali, are still flailing around trying to identify the target. And I think that everything, and this goes for not only coral reefs but for rainforest, for the breakdown of the Greenland ice sheet and all of these other issues, 450 is going to be what we must at all costs aim for.” [14].</p></blockquote>
<p>As outlined above, the Australian Labor Government is committed to polices that will mean an increase in Australia’s already world leading annual per capita Domestic and Exported GHG pollution from 54 tonnes CO2-e per person per year to 59 tonnes CO2-e per person per year – about 9 times the present World average annual per capita GHG pollution.</p>
<p>Back in 1901, Australia’s first PM, racist Edmund Barton, declared that “The doctrine of the equality of man was never intended to apply to the equality of an Englishman and the Chinaman.” [15].</p>
<p>In 1947 the racist Labor Minister for Immigration, Arthur Calwell, notoriously declared that “Two Wongs do not make a White.” [16].</p>
<p>Now, in the 21st century, the Australian Labor Federal Government is committed to 2050 policy targets that effectively state in relation to permissible per capita GHG pollution that 10 Chinese, 27 Indians, 39 Pakistanis or 65 Bangladeshis are not equivalent to one White Australian.</p>
<p>Further, the Australian Labor Federal Government policy goes well beyond the mere climate racism of “65 Bangladeshis do not equal one White Australian” to what must be described as climate genocide, ecocide and terracide. Thus the atmospheric GHG targets of the Australian Labor Federal Government (generally supported by the conservative Opposition and hence by the 90% of Australians who vote for the Lib-Labs) mean the destruction of Australian and World coral reefs, destruction of the Greenland ice sheet, massive destruction of the phytoplankton of the Oceans together with much of the ocean food chain as well as cloud seeding.</p>
<p>Climate racist, climate criminal, White Australia is overwhelmingly committed to destruction of much of Humanity and the biosphere in the interests of short-term private gain of Australian- and foreign-owned corporate interests who generously fund the egregiously corrupt, dishonest and racist Australian Labor Party (aka the Apartheid Labor Party) and no doubt the other Lib-Lab parties too.</p>
<p>Of course, Australia is not the only climate criminal First World country – it is simply the worst by far of the OECD climate criminals. Indeed the G8 meeting at L’Aquila, Italy, in 2009 was a comprehensive failure that committed the First World to a policy of unspoken Climate Genocide. Thus, according to top UK climate scientist Dr James Lovelock FRS, fewer than 1 billion people will survive this century, this corresponding to the avoidable death this century of 10 billion non-Europeans, with this holocaust including 6 billion infants, 3 billion Muslims (a Muslim Holocaust 500 times bigger than the 5-6 million victim WW2 Jewish Holocaust), 2 billion Indians (more than the 1.8 billion victim Indian Holocaust under the racist British, 1757-1947) , 0.3 billion Bangladeshis (100 times more than the 3 million victim Bengali Holocaust under the US-backed Pakistan Army in 1971) and 0.3 billion Pakistanis. [9].</p>
<p>What can decent people (including decent Australians) do to protect themselves, their loved ones, Humanity and  the very biosphere of Planet Earth from the climate racist, climate criminal, pro-coal Australian Libs-Labs?</p>
<p>Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. Decent people must urgently act by (a) informing others about the worsening, Australia-lead Climate Genocide and (b) urging application of  Sanctions, Boycotts, Green Tariffs, reparations demands and criminal prosecutions before the International Criminal Court (ICC) to bring to heel all of the climate criminals, most notably climate racist White Australia and its climate criminal Anglo-American associates, who are knowingly threatening the non-European World with Climate Genocide. [17].</p>
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		<title>Paleoclimate scientist Glikson: Cut carbon emissions 80% by 2020 to avoid catastrophe</title>
		<link>http://www.green-blog.org/2009/08/04/paleoclimate-scientist-glikson-cut-carbon-emissions-80-by-2020-to-avoid-catastrophe/</link>
		<comments>http://www.green-blog.org/2009/08/04/paleoclimate-scientist-glikson-cut-carbon-emissions-80-by-2020-to-avoid-catastrophe/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:38:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr Gideon Polya</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Global Warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2020]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alice Bows]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Glikson]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[We are running out of time – so what can decent folk do in the face of greedy, corrupt, climate racist, climate genocidal, climate criminal intransigence? The world must cut carbon emissions by 80% by 2020 to avert catastrophe, according &#8230; <a href="http://www.green-blog.org/2009/08/04/paleoclimate-scientist-glikson-cut-carbon-emissions-80-by-2020-to-avoid-catastrophe/"></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="quote1">We are running out of time – so what can decent folk do in the face of greedy, corrupt, climate racist, climate genocidal, climate criminal intransigence?</div>
<p>The world must cut carbon emissions by 80% by 2020 to avert catastrophe, according to paleoclimate scientist Dr Dr Andrew Glikson (Australian National University) in an interview broadcast by Radio Australia (for the interview see &#8220;<a href="http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/connectasia/stories/200907/s2634156.htm">Carbon emissions must be cut by 80 percent [by 2020]: scientist</a>&#8220;) .</p>
<p>This expert opinion telescopes the time frame for requisitely dealing with the worsening climate disruption, climate emergency and climate genocide from half a century to a decade. </p>
<p>Dr Andrew Glikson is an Earth and paleoclimate scientist, Visiting Fellow, School of Archaeology and Anthropology, Research School of Earth Science and Institute of Planetary Science, <a href="http://arts.anu.edu.au/AandA/people/visitors/glikson.asp">Australian National University</a> (ANU), Canberra, ACT, Australia.</p>
<p>Dr Andrew Glikson interviewed by taxpayer-funded Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) Radio Australia, 2009, in response to the question ”what has to be done?” stated (in part): </p>
<blockquote><p>“extremely rapid reduction in emissions &#8230;  I would say, 80 percent within the next ten years or so &#8230; people like me have been looking at the evidence about this on a day to day basis and we have been doing it for years, and to look in to the abyss at this length is a daunting task.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Dr Glikson’s plea is consonant with the dire views of Professor Kevin Anderson and Dr Alice Bows, climate scientists at the prestigious <a href="http://www.tyndall.ac.uk">Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research</a>, University of Manchester, UK. </p>
<p>Professor Kevin Anderson and Dr Alice Bows, in a key paper in the prestigious Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 2008, stated: </p>
<p><span id="more-1773"></span></p>
<blockquote><p>“According to the analysis conducted in this paper, stabilizing at 450 ppmv [carbon dioxide equivalent = CO2-e, atmospheric concentration measured in parts per million by volume; roughly the present level at 390 ppm CO2] requires, at least, global energy related emissions to peak by 2015, rapidly decline at 6-8% per year between 2020 and 2040, and for full decarbonization sometime soon after 2050 …Unless economic growth can be reconciled with unprecedented rates of decarbonization (in excess of 6% per year), it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilization at or below 650 ppmv CO2-e … Ultimately, the latest scientific understanding of climate change allied with current emissions trends and a commitment to “limiting average global temperature increases to below 4oC above pre-industrial levels”, demands a radical reframing of both the climate change agenda, and the economic characterization of contemporary society” (see: <a href="http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/journal_papers/fulltext.pdf">Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows, Proc. Trans. Roy. Soc, A, 2008</a>).</p></blockquote>
<p>Indeed Dr Glikson’s interpretation of the data of Anderson and Bows is “The ocean/atmosphere system is fast tracking to conditions similar to those of an ice-free earth .. [we need] Urgent deep reductions in carbon emissions, on the scale of at last 5% per year, relative to 1990 … The alternative to urgent fast tracked mitigation efforts does not bear contemplation” (see Andrew Glikson, “21st century carbon blueprints: perspective from the recent history of the atmosphere”, July 2009 – to see this and a related expertly written power point lecture scroll down at “<a href="http://sites.google.com/site/cutcarbonemissions80by2020/dr-andrew-glikson-earth-paleoclimate-scientist-reduce-ghg-emissions-by-80-by-2020">Dr Andrew Glikson: earth and paleoclimate scientist: reduce GHG emissions by 80% by 2020</a>”). </p>
<p>A layperson’s take on what Dr Glikson is saying is provided by the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) summary of the interview with Dr Andrew Glikson: &#8220;Despite urgent global warming warnings, there&#8217;s little hope that December&#8217;s Copenhagen climate change meeting will secure an international agreement. Even domestic measures are subject to bitter politics and trade-offs, like the Australian government&#8217;s plans to cut emissions by five-to-15 per cent by the year 2020. Even if such measures did pass, one expert [Dr Glikson] says it&#8217;d be like giving aspirin to a cancer patient. He says <a href="http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/connectasia/stories/200907/s2634156.htm">nothing less than 80 per cent emissions cuts</a> over the next ten years will avert catastrophe&#8221;. </p>
<p>Dr Glikson’s dire warning is consonant with warnings from other climate change analysts .For a compilation of such opinions see the website “<a href="http://sites.google.com/site/cutcarbonemissions80by2020/home">Cut carbon emissions 80% by 2020</a>”. </p>
<p>Thus Sam Carana’s Change Our World, 2008 says: “James Hansen, NASA&#8217;s top climate scientist, says in &#8220;Target CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?&#8221; (see Target CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? ) that the EU target of 550 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 &#8211; the most stringent in the world &#8211; was not good enough, as this would cause the world to warm by 6C, rather than the previous estimate of just 3C. Hansen says targets should be slashed to 350 ppm … As the Environmental Protection Agency&#8217;s inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2005 (see:  inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2005 ) shows, well over 80% of US emissions are caused by fossil fuel &#8211; the mining of fossil fuel and burning it in power plants and in transportation. So, if we switched to electric vehicles over a period of a dozen years and to electricity produced in clean and safe ways, such as with wind and solar power, this would achieve an 80% cut by 2020 “ (see: Sam Carana, “<a href="http://change-our-world.blogspot.com/2008/03/reduce-emissions-by-80-by-2020.html">Reduce emissions by 80% by 2020, Symptoms of global warming</a>”, Change Our World, 2008).</p>
<p>The prestigious Earth Policy Institute (EPI) is an environmental organization founded in 2001 by Lester R. Brown, based in Washington, D.C., U.S.A., and dedicated to building a sustainable future and informing the public about climate change, population expansion, mass species extinction and other threats impacting upon Humanity (see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Policy_Institute">Wikipedia</a> and <a href="http://www.earth-policy.org/">Earth Policy Institute</a>).</p>
<p>Thus Lester R. Brown and colleagues, “Time for Plan B. Cutting emissions 80 percent by 2020”:<br />
<blockquote>“When political leaders look at the need to cut carbon dioxide emissions to curb global warming, they ask the question: How much of a cut is politically feasible? At the Earth Policy Institute we ask a different question: How much of a cut is necessary to avoid the most dangerous effects of climate change? …   Cutting CO2 emissions 80 percent by 2020 will take a worldwide mobilization at wartime speed. First, investing in energy efficiency will allow us to keep energy demand from increasing. Then we can cut carbon emissions by one third by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources for electricity and heat production. A further 14 percent drop comes from restructuring our transportation systems and reducing coal and oil use in industry. Ending net deforestation worldwide can cut CO2 emissions another 16 percent. Last, planting trees and managing soils to sequester carbon [biochar] can absorb 17 percent of our current emissions. None of these initiatives depends on new technologies. We know what needs to be done to reduce CO2 emissions 80 percent by 2020. All that is needed now is leadership“ (see Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, Jonathan G. Dorn, and Frances C. Moore, “<a href="http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB3/80by2020notes.pdf">Time for Plan B. Cutting emissions 80 percent by 2020</a>”, Earth Policy Institute).</p></blockquote>
<p>Even big business has wised up to the realities. Thus British Telecom (BT) is the major UK telecommunications company (see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BT_Group">Wikipedia</a>). According to Earth2tech, 2 June 2008: “British Telecom (BT) said today it plans to reduce its carbon emissions 80 percent by 2020. The UK-based incumbent telecom operator is already on its way to meeting that aggressive target, and last October said it would invest close to half a billion dollars in wind farms that could supply close to 25 percent of the company’s power needs by 2016. That was the largest investment in renewable power by a non-power company in the UK &#8230;  BT also says the company has created a new tool called the Climate Stabilisation Intensity (CSI) Target to measure and track carbon emissions” (Katie Fehrenbacher, Earth2tech, “<a href="http://earth2tech.com/2008/06/02/bt-to-cut-carbon-emissions-by-80-by-2020/">British Telecom (BT) to cut carbon emissions 80 percent by 2020</a>”, 2 June 2008).</p>
<p>In horrible contrast to these expert views that we must “reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2020”, world governments talk of  a notional “80% off 2000 GHG emissions by 2050” but mostly, as predicted by Drs Anderson and Bows,  show no sign of taking anything like the requisite steps.</p>
<p>Thus, for example, climate criminal Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter and is a world leader in GHG pollution on a per capita  basis.  As of 2008,  “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh),  2.2 (India), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 27 (the US) and 30 (Australia; or 54 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included (see Wikipedia, “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita">List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita</a>”).</p>
<p>However climate criminal Australia has offered a derisory “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020” and”60% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2050”, these offerings IGNORING Australia’s enormous annual Exported GHG pollution that is about half of the total annual Domestic and Exported GHG pollution of Australia (see “<a href="http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/australia-s-5-off-2000-ghg-pollution-by-2020-endangers-australia-humanity-and-biosphere">Australia’s “5% off 2000 GHG pollution by 2020” endangers Australia, Humanity and the Biosphere</a>“). </p>
<p>We are running out of time – so what can decent folk do in the face of greedy, corrupt, climate racist, climate genocidal, climate criminal intransigence?</p>
<p>Peace is the only way but silence kills and silence is complicity. In the words of Dr Andrew Glikson, informed people are now staring into “the abyss”. Decent, responsible people must (a) inform everyone they can and (b)  advocate intra-national and international sanctions, boycotts, green tariffs, reparations demands and criminal prosecutions against people, corporations and countries (notably climate Australia) complicit in the worsening climate disruption, climate emergency and climate genocide that is predicted to kill 10 billion people this century. </p>
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