Lord Nicholas Stern, British economist and academic who is most known for the Stern Review said, during an improvised speech at a Cape Town hotel in South Africa, that if we don’t act quickly and determinedly to address climate change the world will face billions of climate refugees and extended world wars in a near future:

“If the world’s nations act responsibly, Stern said, they will achieve “zero-carbon” electricity production and zero-carbon road transport by 2050 _ by replacing coal power plants with wind, solar or other energy sources that emit no carbon dioxide, and fossil fuel-burning vehicles with cars running on electric or other “clean” energy.

Then warming could be contained to a 2-degree-Celsius (3.4-degree-Fahrenheit) rise this century, he said.

But if negotiators falter, if emissions reductions are not made soon and deep, the severe climate shifts and sea-level rises projected by scientists would be “disastrous.”

It would “transform where people can live,” Stern said. “People would move on a massive scale. Hundreds of millions, probably billions of people would have to move if you talk about 4-, 5-, 6-degree increases” _ 7 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit. And that would mean extended global conflict, “because there’s no way the world can handle that kind of population move in the time period in which it would take place.”"

More quotes from Lord Nicholas Stern:
- “I underestimated the threat”
- Green Quote of the Week: Nicholas Stern

Also read:
- More than 6 billion people will perish by the end of the century

“The world faces a global climate emergency. It is now clear that only action by both developed and developing countries can prevent the climate crisis from deepening,” environment minister Martinus Van Schalkwyk said in a statement.

In 2003 South Africa emitted 446 million tonnes of greenhouse gases “and forecasts growth to a maximum of 550 million tonnes a year by 2025.”

South Africa wants the greenhouse gas emissions to stop growing “at the latest by 2020 to 2025, stabilise for up to 10 years, and then decline in absolute terms.” Van Schalkwyk said that “the aim is to limit global temperature increases to two degrees above pre-industrial levels.”

Both environment groups and business associations has welcomed the climate change plan saying it’s a major step “towards galvanising rich industrialised nations into addressing climate change.” Andre Fourie, chief executive of National Business Initiative, a group advocating sustainable development, said that “the cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of mitigating the effects of climate change.”

Professor Harald Winkler, from the University of Cape Town climate change department, was also happy about the new proposed climate change plan, especially the carbon tax:

“Our analysis shows that putting a price on carbon has the single largest impact on emissions. By using the price signal, it sends signals to all actors in the economy, and can shift behaviour.”

The proposed climate change plan has already been endorsed by the cabinet in South Africa and finance officials are already “investigating ways of implementing the [carbon] tax.” But the plan must be approved by the parliament before it gets the final green light.