Photo credit: JC i Núria

Much sheer speculation has been written about the upcoming Copenhagen climate negotiations, and we will see much more over the next few weeks. What is this conference about, and what are the real issues at stake for the future of the world?

The conference in Copenhagen was set to negotiate a follow-up treaty to the Kyoto Accords, set to expire in 2012, a treaty that the Senate and the Bush administration refused to ratify or cooperate with. While China has recently passed the US as the largest emitter of global warming gases, the US is still far, far ahead of all other countries in per capita emissions, making US efforts a crucial aspect of whatever efforts the world makes.

The Kyoto Accords set aspirational guidelines for countries to shoot for as they worked to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. A large majority of the world’s countries ratified the Accords, and some made serious efforts to meet them, but few countries managed to do so. The European Union set up a carbon trading scheme, and several European countries have made large-scale investments in alternative renewable energy. Other countries only approached their targets due to decreased economic activity, primarily Russia.

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This week Nicholas Stern, the British top climate economist and academic who is probably most known for the Stern Review, endorsed 350 ppm as “a very sensible long-term target.”

350 ppm, as in parts per million, the level scientists have identified as the safe upper limit for CO2 in our atmosphere. We are currently at 390 ppm and, according to the science, we need to get back to 350 ppm as soon as possible to be able avoid runaway climate change.

In an interview with a German newspaper Stern endorsed the 350 ppm target saying he “think it’s a very sensible long-term target.” Bill McKibben, environmental writer and founder of 350.org, writes:

“I think it’s a very sensible long-term target.” He went on to explain: “People have to be aware that is a truly long-term target. We have already passed 350ppm, we are at 390 ppm of Co2 and at 435 ppm of Co2-equivalents right now. It is most important to stop the increase of flows of emissions short term and then start the decline of flows of annual emissions and get them down to levels which will move concentrations of CO2 back down towards 350ppm.

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An overwhelming global scientific consensus says that man-made global warming is happening NOW. Indeed for the latest see the report from President Obama’s science advisers that states that massive climatic disruption is already affecting the United States and that projects that the average U.S. temperature could rise by as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century (see “White House: climate change damage happening now. Obama’s first global warming report most dire yet: Ill effects already here, will get worse”). Thus White House report report co-author Anthony Janetos of the University of Maryland:

“There are in some cases already serious consequences. This is not a theoretical thing that will happen 50 years from now. Things are happening now.”

Nevertheless the climate sceptics are unfazed and essentially all governments around the world are committed to continuing to increase atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration above the present level of circa 390 parts per million (ppm) to even more dangerous levels.

In contrast, in climate criminal Australia (one of the world’s worst annual per capita greenhouse gas polluters) climate activists and leading climate scientists are calling for urgent reduction of atmospheric CO2 to 300 ppm. The Australia-based Climate Emergency Network, the Canberra Climate Action Summit (over 140 Australia-wide climate action groups), the influential Yarra Valley Climate Action Group and 300.org all say – informed by the latest science from America’s Dr James Hansen (NASA GISS), Australia’s Professor Barry Brook (climate science, University of Adelaide) and others – that for a safe and sustainable existence for all people and all species the atmospheric CO2 of our warming-threatened planet must be urgently reduced from the current circa 390 ppm to 300 ppm (click here for details and documentation).

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The US-based organization 350 has planned for 24 October 2009 as an International Day of Climate Action – as a global day of action demanding a REDUCTION in atmospheric CO2 concentration from the present damaging 387 ppm to at most 350 ppm (in contrast the corrupt and inept world governments are all aiming to INCREASE atmospheric CO2).

Informed by the latest science, Australia-based, but hopefully International, 300 was formed to educate the public about the urgent need to reduce atmospheric CO2 from the present damaging level of about 390 ppm to a safe and sustainable level of 300 ppm.

300.org enthusiastically endorses the 350.org 24 October 2009 International Day of Climate Action but recommends the number from the latest climate science of “300” (see “Re 300.org & 350”.org) .

Here are comments from some major climate activists and climate action groups who have summed up the latest scientific evidence and conclude that there is an urgent need to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration to 300 ppm.

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I just got this email and video from 350, the global grassroots climate movement:

It’s 3 in the morning in Poland and I need your help with an experiment. Can you take 2 minutes watch an animation and help take over YouTube?

A little background: starting a week ago, a few members of the international 350.org team have converged for the annual UN Climate Conference. It’s a little crazy here–over 9,000 people representing 190 countries have gathered to negotiate our collective future. Things are changing by the hour, and there’s both bad news and good news to report.

The bad news first: lots of countries still don’t get it, and some (most notably, the EU) are using delay tactics to postpone action, squandering time that scientists say we simply do not have.

Now for the good news: over 49 of the least developed countries (that’s more than a quarter of the world’s nations) just announced support for a 350 target. This is AMAZING, as last year a 350 goal wasn’t even on the map. It’s testament to your hard work–and the very real threats these countries are facing right now–that we’ve come so far in such a short time.

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The global grassroots climate movement, 350, asks for your help to invite President-elect Barack Obama to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poland this December.

So far over 48,000 “invitations” have been sent. Sign the invitation, click here!

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